Dem
51
GOP
49
Well, this is not going to gladden the heart of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), assuming he has one. Yesterday, Florida Atlantic University (FAU) released its latest survey of the state, which says that among Republican presidential candidates, Donald Trump is leading DeSantis by 20 points, 50% to 30%.
There hasn't been that much polling of the Sunshine State's presidential primary, and what polling there has been is all over the place. FAU also did a poll back in April, and had Trump up 28 points. National Research did a poll back in May and had Trump up 8. On the other hand, the May poll by Victory Research, and the June poll by Breakthrough Research had it as a dead heat.
Of these pollsters, FAU is the strongest, followed by National Research. Victory Research is mediocre, as you might guess from its somewhat leading name, while Breakthrough Research "broke through" just a few months ago, and so doesn't have a track record. In other words, the good pollsters have Trump up big, and the mediocre pollsters have the race close. So, if you have to choose, you have to assume that Trump really is up by a comfortable margin.
If this is correct, it's really bad news for DeSantis. One of his relatively few rays of hope is the notion that once voters get to know him, they'll warm up to him. Florida voters, of course, already know him quite well, thank you very much. And if they like Trump way better (or even if they like Trump about the same), how can the Governor possibly hope to overcome the former president in states where he (DeSantis) can never possibly achieve the name recognition that Trump has?
Another ray of hope for DeSantis is the notion that if Trump is indicted or convicted, that will fatally wound his campaign for a second term as president. The problem is that while this might hold for most politicians, it clearly does not hold for Trump, a.k.a. the Dear Leader. A new poll confirms something that was already showing up in the numbers, namely that 25% of Republicans say Trump's indictment for stealing classified documents makes them more likely to support him. Most of these people are True Believers, of course, who were going to vote Trump regardless. We seriously doubt that there are many people who are saying "You know, I wasn't going to vote Trump... but then he was indicted for mishandling classified information." Still, the point is that Trump's base is simply not going to leave him, regardless. And given the Republicans' winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries, a solid 35% or 40% of the GOP primary vote, which Trump clearly has locked up, is going to be enough to give him an insurmountable delegate lead by the time Super Tuesday is over.
In short, DeSantis is running out of plausible rays of hope. And his campaign has been so godawful that prominent Republicans who said they were "out" are pondering getting back "in" again, people like Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). They aren't going to knock Trump off, either, but at least they are not likely to run a campaign as poor as DeSantis' has been.
It's not going to happen, but at this point, DeSantis should really think about getting out, trying to improve on his weaknesses, and then making another go of it in 2028 when Trump is considerably less likely to be in the way. The Governor could, for example, take note that Florida now has the worst inflation of any state in America, and could say he simply has to devote all his time to working on that problem, so he just can't run for the White House right now. Savvy politics-watchers would know this was just a face-saving excuse, but many less-dialed-in voters might see it as a credit to the man that he's willing to put duty above ambition. (Z)