Dem
51
GOP
49
It is rare when the assumed frontrunner in a race passes on the race, but that is what Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) just did. With Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) hanging up his hat, Raskin would have been the clear favorite to win the seat if he ran. But he is not running. He was the lead prosecutor at Donald Trump's second impeachment, has a national profile, and could raise money from all over the country.
It's hard to figure out why he didn't go for it. He's 60, but he could probably serve four terms. One possible reason is that if he ran and won, he would be the most junior senator in a body that takes seniority very seriously. If he stays in the House, which he can do until he dies in his D+29 district (MD-08), he will have a lot of power if the Democrats retake the House. Then he will be chairman of the House Oversight Committee, which has the authority to investigate anyone and anything. In the House, he can also mentor younger members, which as a former professor of constitutional law he likes to do. He has picked Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his right-hand woman on the Oversight Committee. This will give her a very high profile if he becomes chairman and the Committee starts all manner of investigations in 2025.
Another reason Raskin might have declined a run is his health. He has a form of lymphoma that is currently in remission. Running for the Senate would be hard work and he might not feel up to it. Running for reelection to the House would merely require filing some paperwork with the Maryland secretary of state. He wouldn't even have to bother campaigning.
Raskin said that he has friends who said giving up all his power in the House to become a junior senator would be crazy. However, he also said he has friends who said that missing a once-in-a-generation shot at an empty Senate seat would be crazy.
With Raskin in the Senate race, the Democrats would be sure to hold the seat. However, without Raskin in the race, they are still sure to hold the seat. There will be a wild primary, with Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone (D-MD) already in and at least half a dozen other Democrats on the sidelines who were waiting for Raskin to make a decision. Now that he is out, state AG (and former Rep.) Anthony Brown (D-MD) and Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD) might jump in along with a bunch of others. But Maryland is so blue, and with a nearly empty GOP bench given that former governor Larry Hogan (R) isn't interested, it doesn't matter who wins the primary in terms of control of the Senate. It will be a Democrat no matter what. (V)