Dem
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GOP
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While Iowa and New Hampshire are important, they are not the only players. The Republican primary calendar hasn't been fully set yet, but it looks like Iowa will hold its Republican caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024. Then comes the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 (probably). After that—crickets. For a whole month. South Carolina is set to vote on Feb. 24. That's a very long stretch with no elections, unless Nevada sneaks in there.
As we note above, Iowa has a terrible record for picking the Republican nominee. New Hampshire and South Carolina are better. Here are recent winners for years with a competitive Republican race:
| state | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2000 |
| Iowa | Ted Cruz | Rick Santorum | Mike Huckabee | George Bush |
| New Hampshire | Donald Trump | Mitt Romney | John McCain | John McCain |
| South Carolina | Donald Trump | Newt Gingrich | John McCain | George Bush |
| Nevada | Donald Trump | Mitt Romney | Mitt Romney |
If Donald Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, the only way he could be stopped is a big loss in South Carolina. As it turns out, there are two candidates from that state in the race now, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Nikki Haley. Whether both will survive until South Carolina is far from clear, though. If either one of them (or someone else) wins South Carolina, that could at least stop Trump's momentum. If both Scott and Haley are in the race then, they will probably split the vote, though. However, terrible results in Iowa and New Hampshire might force one or both of them out. The anti-Trump forces would be strongest if the only viable candidates left by the time South Carolina votes are Ron DeSantis and one of the South Carolinians and Chris Christie. Then it is possible Trump might come in second or third.
In any event, the unusually long gap between New Hampshire and South Carolina will be a critical period in the campaign. (V)