Dem
51
GOP
49
Demographic trends are working against the Republicans. Every presidential cycle another batch of (Democratic-leaning) 14-17 year olds becomes eligible to vote and some number of older Republicans is no longer able to participate in the election. This means the state legislatures have to work harder and harder to find ways to block Democrats from voting. In Arizona and Wisconsin, this doesn't work anymore because the governors are Democrats and they will veto any new restrictive voting laws. In Georgia, it is still possible.
One bit of good news in the past was the Mormon Church. Its members have always been reliably conservative and it is one of the few churches in the country that has a historical track record of growth. Most others are in decline. Growth is a key principle for the Mormons. Young Mormons spend 2 or 3 years as missionaries doing what in other sectors is called "business development," that is, finding new customers. When they come home, they are urged to get married and have large families quickly.
However, in recent years even the Mormon Church is declining. Here is a graph showing the percentage of U.S. adults who identify as Mormons from 2008 to 2022:
Also, LDS members are having fewer children than previously. Among the silent generation and boomers, 39% had at least five children. Among millennials that is 30%.
Another problem for the Church is that younger members are not as reliably Republican as their parents and grandparents. Among Mormons born in the 1940s and 1950s, only 9% are Democrats. Among Mormons born in the 1990s, 33% are Democrats.
Numerically, Mormons are a small group (outside of Utah), but in close elections, every vote could matter. Having to worry about yet another group is not what the Republicans need right now. While Utah's electoral votes are not in doubt, about 6% of Arizona voters are Mormons, and Arizona elections are often decided by less than 6% these days.
It is possible that when Donald Trump finally departs stage right, some younger Mormons will become Republicans. Many of them hate his uncouth personal style, feuds with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), and hatred of Muslims. Mormons have faced discrimination as long as the Church existed, so they tend to react negatively to religious bigotry. But maybe not. In any case, for now, it's yet another "reliable" Republican group that's not so reliable anymore. Suburban women and LDS church members don't have too much in common, but they do have this. (V)