Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is lurching from one crisis to another. He got past the debt-ceiling issue, but now the government needs a new budget before Oct. 1. This means passing 12 appropriations bills before mid-September in order to deal with the possibility that the Senate won't swallow them whole. In that case, there will have to be a conference committee to hash out the differences. His problem is that the Freedom Caucus wants to plant bombs in many of the bills and the 18 Republicans who are in districts Joe Biden won do not want any grandstanding. Poor Kevin has to figure out how to somehow get 218 Republicans on board with these bills. Alternatively, he has to work with the Democrats, who have their own wish lists. It won't be easy and if he fails, the government will shut down on Oct. 1 and McCarthy will get blamed.
One possible plan is to kick the can down the road and pass a stopgap bill to fund the government until November or December, but then the problem comes right back. Having to unite the warring factions of his caucus in November or December won't be any easier than now, so what's the point? But kicking the can down the road is what politicians do. It's a longstanding technique for avoiding pain right now. Actually, many people are on vacation now and not paying attention to politics, so passing a bill now will get less attention than passing one in November. Maybe McCarthy is thinking about holding the vote on Christmas Eve.
In the end, McCarthy could opt for smoke and mirrors and accounting tricks to allow each side to claim victory, even though it didn't get what it wants. Or he could work with the Biden 18 and the Democrats and risk a motion to vacate the chair, although if the Freedom Caucus brought that and the Biden 18 voted against vacating the chair, he could survive. (V)