Dem
51
GOP
49
Democrats have one huge advantage over Republicans this cycle. Virtually all of them are pro-choice and most think an abortion should be available to any woman who asks for one up until at least the end of the second trimester of pregnancy. No infighting there at all, really.
Republicans, in contrast, are badly divided on this issue. Some want to ban the procedure from the moment of conception and some want to allow it for up to 15 weeks. If the limit were set at 15 weeks, many women would move fast on an abortion and a large percentage of them would actually happen. Last year, 93% of abortions happened before the 13th week of pregnancy. Thus setting the cutoff at 15 weeks means that almost all abortions can happen and the ban is very nearly no ban at all.
The problem for the Republicans, of course, is what sells well in the primaries sells very poorly in the general election. Staking out a no-abortions-ever policy might help getting the GOP nomination for whatever office you are running for, but guarantees big trouble in the general election. This is especially true of all high-profile races, particularly the presidential race.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is on the air in Iowa with a proposal for a national 15-week ban. Mike Pence also supports a 15-week ban. However, Ron DeSantis just signed a 6-week ban, putting him in opposition to Scott and Pence. Donald Trump has been very cagey and not taken a hard position on this at all. One detail that is not clear is whether states could have a ban at an earlier time, like 6 weeks? If so, why can't states have a later ban, like 30 weeks?
Some candidates are trying to finesse the issue. Will Hurd said that there aren't 60 votes in the Senate for anything, so there is no point in even talking about a national law since it couldn't be passed anyway. Other folks in the anti-choice world don't like this at all. They want abortion to be central. Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, said: "What will not work is what our candidates and campaigns tried to do in '22, which was never talk it about it and only talk about inflation and gas prices and think that this would go away." Reed and his ilk don't care a whit about gas prices but they care enormously about abortion and want it front and center.
In any event, having Democrats be united and Republicans bickering can't but help the Democrats on an issue they are going to make the centerpiece of their campaigns up and down the ticket. The sooner Republicans can unite on a position, the better for them, but doesn't seem to be forthcoming any time soon. (V)