Jul.05

electoral-vote.com

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GOP 49

Today in Lousy Political Analysis

Usually Politico's Jack Shafer has useful things to say. This week, however, he uncorked a real stinker of an op-ed, headlined "Why Democrats Should Primary Biden: It would be good for the party—and the president."

We were trying to figure out how Shafer could come up with something so far below par, and wondered if it might not be the holiday weekend. Maybe, if there isn't much news, and you're looking for a little extra time to enjoy the long weekend, and you aren't clever enough to come up with a scavenger hunt, you phone it in a bit? It was just an idle theory, until we happened to look back to last year (for unrelated reasons), and were reminded that exactly one year ago today, we wrote an item headlined "Today in Mediocre Political Analysis," about some dodgy number-crunching by the Associated Press. So, maybe we're on to something when we point the finger at the July 4 holiday.

Anyhow, you can infer the basic argument of the Shafer piece from the headline: Joe Biden has weaknesses, and a serious primary challenge would help him to improve upon those weaknesses. Let us now present our half-dozen biggest criticisms of Shafer's argument:

1. God Save the Queen: Shafer, like every other political commentator, has noticed that sometimes Biden misspeaks in public: "He's a stiff when speaking at the lectern. When not a stiff, the 80-year-old can be a dolt."
   
   The author is to be commended for, in effect, embracing right-wing talking points hook, line and sinker. Balance! In any event, perhaps you believe, as we do, that Biden is a perfectly capable public speaker, one who trips over his tongue on occasion (as all public speakers do), and who is occasionally affected by his stutter. Alternatively, perhaps you believe Biden is losing his marbles. Whatever your explanation, more public speaking isn't going to fix the problem. He's not a recent college graduate who should maybe consider joining Toastmasters to sharpen his public speaking skills. No, he's a 50-year politician who has delivered thousands of speeches. He is what he is, speaking-wise.
   
   
2. Somebody with Nobody: As we have written many times, you can't beat somebody with nobody. You also can't primary somebody with nobody. Biden already has the best staffers, a huge war chest, and a commanding polling lead. Why would an ambitious Democrat want to subject their future hopes to that? It is true that, sometimes, the second place finisher in year X becomes the presumptive favorite in year X+4. However, you actually have to go back a long ways to find someone like that who became president. That would be Ronald Reagan, who was the leading challenger to Gerald Ford in 1976 and then claimed the White House in 1980. Since then, well, we've had George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. None of them were even serious candidates in the presidential election immediately before the one they won, much less the "runner-up." Meanwhile, an unsuccessful presidential campaign can most certainly hang a "loser" label on a politician.
   
   Note also that if Biden falters (say, he has a stroke), Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is going to jump in so fast it will make your head spin. Others too, presumably, and everyone is ready for that Plan B. So, it's entirely possible for some up-and-coming Democrats to harbor 2024 hopes, and to prepare for 2028, without turning themselves into sacrificial lambs now.
   
   
3. Divisions: Meanwhile, if a serious Democratic challenger (sorry, Bob Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson) actually gets some traction, it could very well divide the Party. Even a much-reduced version of Hillary vs. Bernie, 2016 could be fatal in 2024. And everyone in the Democratic Party has, remarkably, figured that out.
   
   
4. Trump: Shafer observes that, in contrast to Biden, Donald Trump is being sharpened right now: "at least a growing number of ambitious Republicans are forcing him to run a real primary campaign instead of bowing to him."
   
   It is remarkable that a professional political writer can put this to paper with a straight face. How, exactly, is Donald Trump's campaign, as it stands right now, any different than it would be if no other Republicans had entered the race? Here is the answer to that question: Trump spends some percentage of his time saying snotty things about his opponents. That's it. Other than that, he's saying the exact same things he'd be saying anyhow, proposing the same policies (such as they are) he'd be proposing anyhow, and just generally doing what Donald Trump does—setting the narrative, and allowing others to react to him. And, incidentally, if he wasn't tossing barbs at Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence, Trump would just use that time and oxygen to attack someone else, because that is what he does.
   
   
5. Game Shape: Shafer also asserts that it's important for Biden to get his campaign into shape, and to "prove that he can still run the traps." And yes, it is absolutely true that one of the benefits of the primaries is that it allows a candidate to hone his or her message and to whip his or her campaign organization into shape.
   
   Once again, Joe Biden has been a politician for 50 years. He was elected president once, and he's been in that office for over 2 years. We are not talking about a novice here, nor a sitting senator/governor who is looking for a promotion. Biden's campaign apparatus and messaging operation are already well-oiled machines.
   
   
6. COVID: On a somewhat related point, Shafer observes that because of the pandemic, Biden didn't do much "real" campaigning in 2020, and a serious primary battle would allow the President to rectify that.
   
   Uh-huh. Multiple times each week, Biden gives a speech at a factory, or holds a photo-op at the groundbreaking for a new bridge, or sits down with some prominent person for an interview. We'll let you in on a little secret that Shafer, it would seem, is not privy to: These are campaign events, at which Biden is campaigning for 2024. He does not need Beto O'Rourke or Stacey Abrams to throw their hats into the ring in order to have campaign stops. By virtue of the bully pulpit, Biden can have as many well-attended, well-covered campaign events as he wants, every single day.

In short, under current conditions (things would change if Biden were to be enmeshed in a legitimate scandal or would have a health scare), the emergence of a viable primary challenger does nothing for Biden and it does nothing for the would-be challenger. The only people it does something for are political pundits who want to bang this week's column out in record time. (Z)