Dem
51
GOP
49
For years, evangelical voters were a dominant force in politics and their hatred for abortion dominated the Republican Party and affected all elections. That is changing now, but not because they "won" (i.e., the Dobbs decision), but because their numbers are shrinking and religiously unaffiliated voters are now a bigger group. Worse yet for the evangelicals, the unchurched are strongly pro-choice and increasingly saying that this is a major issue for them. Here are the data for which groups say that abortion is a "critical issue" for them.
As you can see, there has been a spectacular rise in the importance of abortion among the religiously unaffiliated since 2015. It used to be that they didn't care so much. Now they do, and in 2020, 71% voted for Joe Biden.
What happened? The process has been ongoing, but Dobbs accelerated it. People who took the right to an abortion for granted didn't prioritize it. But now that it is disappearing before their eyes, it is suddenly a top priority.
It is worth noting that for most of the 20th century, evengelicals were not politically active. They were interested in saving souls, not saving unborn babies. Only when white evangelical leaders began to use abortion as an organizing tool in the 1980s did evangelicals become a political bloc. The same has been true of the religiously unaffiliated. Atheists, agnostics, and lapsed churchgoers were never seen as a group called "the unchurched," as they didn't have any key issues in common. Consequently, Democrats never did much outreach to atheists, agnostics, and people who don't belong to any religious group. They might consider changing that in 2024, given that it is a large group, heavily Democratic, and very focused on one specific issue (abortion) that Democrats already support.
Abortion politics may have another unexpected consequence down the road: dechurching of young women. Many young women are strongly pro-choice and if they belong to a church that is anti-choice, they may resolve the conflict by simply leaving the church and joining the religiously unaffiliated. It's free to join. For organized religion, losing the young tends not to lead to a rosy future a few decades down the road. (V)