Jan.23

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Democrats Are Putting McCarthy in a Box on the Debt Issue

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) may not yet regret his decision to pursue the speakership at all costs, but that day is probably not far off. His first hurdle is dealing with the debt limit and that problem is already front and center. Some House Republicans are calling for big cuts in Social Security and Medicare as the price for not plunging the country and the world into a deep depression. Even Donald Trump says cutting those programs would be a big mistake, but the MAGA 20 want them cut.

The Democrats' approach so far is to refuse to negotiate with McCarthy. Instead, they have called on him to come up with a plan that his whole caucus stands behind. Good luck with that. The optics of McCarthy fighting with his caucus to come up with a position that 218 of the 222 members support could be quite spectacular. Democrats are quite content for the moment to sit back and watch McCarthy sweat.

Many of the Democrats remember the 2011 months-long stalemate over the debt limit. They also know that then-Speaker John Boehner had 257 members in his caucus and got some of the credit for the massively successful 2010 election in which the Republicans picked up 63 House seats. And still he had a big problem.

McCarthy also knows that 18 of his members are in districts that Joe Biden won in 2020 and the Democrats need only pick off five of them to pass a clean bill to increase the debt limit with nothing else in it. But if McCarthy quietly gives the five most vulnerable members permission to vote for a clean bill, within an hour of the vote, there is likely to be a motion to vacate the chair.

The Democrats aren't the only ones who have seen this movie before. Political pundit Charlie Cook watched the show last time as well and thinks there are some big differences between now and the 2011 stand-off, as follows:

• Business leaders: It used to be that Republican leaders were very attuned to—some would say, subservient to—the needs of big business. When, say, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told the GOP leadership what business wanted, everyone took notes. That's much less true now. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) probably has no idea who Dimon is and could care less what he wants. The MAGA 20 in general feel little to no need to cater to the wishes of business leaders, none of whom want a default. When James Carville was advising Bill Clinton, he said: "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." Except for the MAGA 20. They are not intimidated by the bond market or the thought of a deep worldwide depression.
  
  
• Trump: Many Republicans in the House now look to Donald Trump for guidance on everything. He has little understanding of economics and does not realize the consequences of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. After all, he stiffs vendors (i.e., defaults on his debt) all the time and it works fine. He probably thinks not paying the interest on treasury bonds China holds would be a brilliant move to stick it to China. In other words, the modern Republican Party barely resembles the Republican Party of George W. Bush's era.
  
  
• Primaries: Congressional districts are now so gerrymandered that only a small number of Republicans worry about losing to a Democrat in the general election. Far more worry about losing to someone even further to the right than they are in a primary. If the MAGA 20 demand drastic cuts to social spending as the price for not blowing up the economy, then a Republican who opposes them could be vulnerable to a challenge from the right, even in an R+30 district. Better to cave to the far right than take a risk.
  
  
• Fundraising: Representatives used to be dependent on other people and groups (like big donors, the NRCC, the RNC, etc.) for fundraising. This meant that had to pay attention to what the donors wanted. Now many representatives get their campaign funding from small, angry donors, few of whom understand the consequences for themselves in the event of a default. Many of these people take their cues from Tucker Carlson, whose job is to keep his audience outraged and coming back for more.
  
  
• Burn it down: A certain part of the Republican base wants the country, the government, and especially the Republican Party burnt to the ground and rebuilt the way they want it. They see a worldwide depression as an opportunity for radical change, the same as FDR did, but in the opposite direction this time. To the extent that House members are listening to these folks, they might see a depression as a feature rather than a bug.
  
  
• Filegate: Joe Biden's personal collection of secret documents has come at a bad time for him. Some Republicans may perceive him as badly weakened and are willing to play a game of Extreme Chicken because they believe he is weak and will fold. The way to win at Chicken is to unscrew the steering wheel and throw it out the window so your opponent knows you did it. In 2011, then-President Obama had no scandals that made him appear weak. That's not true of Biden and this may embolden the Republicans.
  
  
• McConnell: In the recent election, the Republican Senate caucus moved sharply to the right as moderates were replaced by radicals. For example, Roy Blunt was replaced by Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO), Rob Portman was replaced by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Richard Burr was replaced by Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC). These changes mean that Senate Minority Leader Addison M. Turtle has much less control of his caucus and consequently is much less of a moderating influence on the House radicals than in the past.
  

So all in all, McCarthy has a real problem on his hands. He surely knows that if the House Republicans force a default and the Dow Jones index drops 2,000 points within an hour, followed by a deep depression with millions of jobs lost, the Democrats are going to make their entire 2024 campaign about "The Republicans have lost their minds." Actually, the Democrats are going to do that anyhow, but this would make it way easier to sell.

For completeness sake, we should note that the Democrats aren't out of the woods yet either. Joe Manchin yesterday said that the Democrats should negotiate with the Republicans on the debt limit. What will happen if they don't? Remember, the bill has to pass both chambers. But now the Democrats have 51 seats in the Senate, so they can afford to lose one vote. Calling Kyrsten Sinema. Will she vote against the Democrats after Ruben Gallego announces his Senate run? His team has probably already produced an ad attacking her for it. If she supports Biden, that ad will never run, but if she votes with the Republicans, every person in Arizona will see it. (V)