Jan.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The 2024 Governors' Races

We recently discussed the three 2023 gubernatorial races, so now it is time to move on to 2024 since the races for governor are already gearing up. Eleven states will elect a governor in 2024. Nine currently have a Republican governor and two have a Democratic governor. Here they are in alphabetical order:

• Delaware (open): Gov. John Carney (D-DE) is term-limited, leading to an open seat race in 2024. The state is extremely blue and the Republican bench almost nonexistent, so the blue team will hold the seat. It's just a matter of which Democrat wins the primary. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) is a likely competitor, but so is AG Kathy Jennings (D). At-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) might give it a shot, but she can continue to get elected to the House forever, so she probably will stay where she is. Solid Democratic.
  
  
• Indiana (open): Another open seat here. Sen. Mike Braun (R) announced last month that he would rather be governor than senator, so he is retiring from the Senate and will run for the open seat. He won't be the only one. Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch (R) is in and Eric Doden, a wealthy venture capitalist is also in. The Democrats are going to be hard-pressed to find a candidate. Maybe Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick might run, but she is a longshot. Solid Republican.
  
  
• Missouri (open): Another open seat due to a term-limited governor. Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R) is almost certainly in, as is Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe (R). A far-right candidate, state Sen. Bill Eigel (R), might run, too. The primary could be bruising. Democrats don't really have a candidate. Solid Republican.
  
  
• Montana: Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) is running for reelection. He is not going to get any opponents. Ambitious Republicans are going to go after Sen. Jon Tester (D), who is more beatable, so Gianforte will get another term, even if he beats up some more reporters. Solid Republican.
  
  
• New Hampshire: If Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) wants a fifth 2-year term, it is his for the asking. However, if he decides 8 is enough (8 years, that is), the Democrats will have a very good pickup opportunity. If Sununu calls it quits, former senator Kelly Ayotte (R) might run, as could failed senatorial candidate Don Bolduc (R). There are others as well. On the Democratic side, either of the state's U.S. representatives, Annie Kuster or Chris Pappas could run. Many other possible candidates are waiting in the wings for Sununu to make his move.
  
  
• North Carolina (open): Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is popular but term-limited. AG Josh Stein (D) is already formally running for Cooper's job. He will probably win the primary without breaking a sweat. On the Republican side, there is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC). He is a Black Trumpy Christian Nationalist who strongly supports gun rights and opposes abortion. He also has a long history of making demeaning remarks about women, Jews, and LGBTQ people. He's the whole package, if you like that kind of product. State Treasurer Dale Folwell (R) might run against Robinson. If it is Robinson vs. Folwell in the GOP primary, count on lots of Democratic ratf**king. Hard to rate this race, since it depends so much on the Republican nominee. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that North Carolina has had only three Republican governors in the past 100 years, and only one (Pat "Bathroom Bill" McCrory) in the last 30 years..
  
  
• North Dakota: Billionaire Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) has already been elected governor twice, but North Dakota does not have term limits. If he runs again, he's in like Flynn. If he decides to retire, there are plenty of other Republicans who would be happy to take over his job. But first he has to decide. Solid Republican.
  
  
• Utah: Gov. Spencer Cox (R-UT) wants another term. He is a pragmatist and has criticized Tucker Carlson. He's also a devout LDS Church member in a state where that matters quite a bit. His approval rating is 63%. He probably won't face any serious opposition from either party. Solid Republican.
  
  
• Vermont: Like New Hampshire, Vermont has a 2-year term for the governor. Like Sununu, Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) will have been governor for 8 years by Jan. 2025. He could win reelection easily if he runs, but he might decide to call it quits. That would be an even better pick-up opportunity for the Democrats than New Hampshire. If Scott stands down, all the other four statewide officers might jump in. One of them would probably win, since the Republican bench is thin. Sure, some Republican state senator could run, but Scott was a very special candidate and there aren't a lot of them around. It all depends on what he does.
  
  
• Washington: Washington does not have term limits, so if Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA) decides he wants a fourth term, he could probably get it. But he may decide that 12 years is enough. If Inslee retires, AG Bob Ferguson (D) would be the most likely successor, but given how blue the state is, other Democrats might give it a shot, too. It would take a very special Republican to win here; the last one to pull off the trick (John Spellman) took office 6 days before Ronald Reagan was first sworn in as president, and surely rode St. Ronnie's coattails a bit. Solid Democratic.
  
  
• West Virginia (open): Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), a coal billionaire and the richest person in the state, is term-limited. He might decide to challenge Joe Manchin in a cataclysmic battle. Or he might ride off into the sunset, which is bright orange due to all the coal dust in the air. Whatever he does, a Republican will almost certainly be elected governor. The only question is which one. Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) is in. Also, two legacy candidates: state Del. Arch Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and grandson of former governor and convicted felon Arch Moore, as well as auto dealer Chris Miller, son of Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV). The only Democrat who might make a race of it is... Manchin, who has made at least a little noise about getting his old job back (he was governor from 2005-10). But he's unlikely to jump in, and would likely be an underdog even if he did, as his popularity isn't too high right now. Solid Republican.
  

For the most part, few governor's mansions are likely to flip to the other party. The only ones that might do so are New Hampshire and Vermont, and they will only flip if the current governor retires. Otherwise, no states are likely to swap a Democratic governor for a Republican one, or vice versa. (V)