Dem
51
GOP
49
In all of U.S. history, it has never happened that the Democrats flipped one chamber of Congress at the same time the Republicans flipped the other one. But political analyst Stuart Rothenberg foresees that potentially happening in 2024. The reason is clear. The Republican hold on the House is extremely tenuous, especially if the Democrats can pick up two or three seats in New York. On the other hand, the Democrats have only a one-seat majority in the Senate and the map is brutal for them in 2024. So for different reasons, both chambers are at a real risk of flipping.
It has happened before that one party gains seats in one chamber and the other party gains seats in the other one. In fact, in 2022, the Democrats picked up a Senate seat while losing nine seats in the House. In 2020, Democrats gained three Senate seats while losing a dozen House seats. But actually having both chambers flip in opposite directions has never happened before.
On the Senate side, Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Jon Tester (D-MT) are up for reelection in deep red states. They all won in 2018, but that was when Democratic voters were motivated to stick it to then-President Donald Trump. They all are facing tough races this time and some of them could lose. Of course, if Trump is on the ballot in 2024, that could again motivate Democrats to vote, but Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia remain deep red states. The Democrats also have tough races in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. All the Republicans need to do is win two of those races. None of the Republicans up in 2024 are in any real danger. Not even the little-loved Ted Cruz.
As to the House, if the clowns take over and the House becomes a circus, it will be very easy for Democrats to make the case that control should be given back to them. Weeks of testimony about Hunter Biden's laptop, a forced debt crisis, the indictment of Rep. "George Santos" (R-NY), a successful motion to vacate the chair, and other things could be just enough for the Democrats to pick up five House seats, especially in a presidential year, when Democratic turnout is high.
Rothenberg is not going out on a limb and saying it will happen, but from where we stand now, it certainly seems plausible. Which party would a double flip favor? We think it would favor the Republicans because Democratic control of the Senate would allow a Democratic president to get administration officials and judges confirmed easily while it could block a Republican president from getting anyone the Senate didn't like from being confirmed. in other words, the Senate is more powerful than the House, so if you can pick one to control, pick the Senate. (V)