Dem
51
GOP
49
It's kind of early for horserace polls of Donald Trump vs. Ron DeSantis, but since pollsters are conducting them already, we might as well take a look at them, albeit with a substantial amount of salt. Morning Consult ran a poll of the GOP primary. Here are the results:
As you can see, Trump is at 48%, DeSantis is at 31%, Mike Pence is at 8%, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is crying in his beer—alone, since nobody in their right mind would want to have a beer with him. Other polls have had other results in the past few months, but Morning Consult polls have been fairly consistent with results like this. FiveThirtyEight gives Morning Consult a "B" rating. If Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) wants the VP slot, she is going to have to do better than 1%, though.
Obviously, a lot can change in the next year. In particular, Trump is likely to be indicted in Georgia and maybe in D.C. That could convince some Republicans that DeSantis is a better bet, even if he is aloof and unfriendly. Among Trump voters, DeSantis is the clear second choice, so if something happens to Trump, DeSantis will pick up most of his supporters.
Republican voters have a favorable view of both Trump and DeSantis. Trump has 77% approve/23% disapprove and DeSantis has 69% approve/11% disapprove.
As to the general election, Joe Biden beats Trump 43% to 40% with 11% for someone else. Don't believe that. DeSantis beats Biden 44% to 41%, but this is before anyone has beaten on DeSantis real hard. It will be different once that happens. (V)