Dem
51
GOP
49
At the start of this Congress, Senate Democrats elected Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) as pro tem. She has been in the Senate for 20 years and the pro tem has no responsibilities in the Senate, so the announcement of her election was just a short footnote and didn't get much coverage.
Maybe it should have gotten a bit more. As we noted in this week's Q&A, it was a snub of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). The pro tem is third in the line of succession to the presidency, after the vice president and the speaker of the House. Traditionally it has gone to the member of the Senate majority party who has been in the Senate the longest. That would be Feinstein. The election of Murray instead was a not very subtle announcement that the Senate Democrats do not think Feinstein is capable of performing the duties of the president if the need arose. In fact, quite a few of them think she is no longer capable of performing the duties of senator. There is little doubt that Murray could perform the duties of the president if she had to.
The order of succession after the vice president is not in the Constitution. It is set by federal law and has changed over time. In recent years, both parties have elected pro tems who could not possibly have functioned as president. In 2001, then-senator Strom Thurmond was elected to the job at 99. He barely knew that he was a senator. In fact, he barely knew that he was alive. Having him with his finger on the nuclear trigger would be a very scary thought. The Republicans knew that his better days were behind him. That's why they dumped him as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. If he couldn't even oversee the Armed Services, how could he be commander in chief?
In 2010, the Democrats picked then-senator Robert Byrd, then 92. He was not as far gone as Thurmond, but he was nudged out of the position as chairman of the Appropriations Committee, a sign that Democrats didn't trust him making decisions about money, let alone all the other things a president does.
Age isn't everything. If the Republicans pick up the Senate in 2024, they will likely choose the 92-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) as pro tem. Grassley still has all his marbles though, at least now.
Until 1886, the pro tem was second in line, after the vice president. Then the law was changed to put the cabinet ahead of the pro tem and speaker. In 1947, the order was changed again, making it the vice president, the speaker, the pro tem, and then the cabinet.
There is a good case to put the cabinet ahead of the leaders of Congress again. Imagine a terrorist attack that takes out Joe Biden and Kamala Harris together. Then Kevin McCarthy would become president. Since he is a Republican, he would not only fire the entire cabinet, but probably over 1,000 other officials as well. It would be hugely disruptive at a time of national crisis. Getting the Democratic Senate to approve his choice for vice president, cabinet, and all the other officials would be a nightmare.
If the cabinet officials came after the vice president, then the same party would be in charge. If Secretary of State Tony Blinken suddenly found himself in the Oval Office, he would not fire anyone and the government would continue. Over time, he might replace a few people he didn't like, but it would not be the gigantic disruption that switching parties at the top would be. (V)