Dem
51
GOP
49
Last week, we gave readers the chance to make their best guess as to how many days before Kevin McCarthy is subject to a motion to vacate the chair, and said we would report the results today. Here they are, along with the actual date that the various numbers translate to:
| Guess | Date | |
| Lowest guess | 1 day | Jan. 8, 2023 |
| Highest guess | 725 days | Jan. 3, 2025 |
| Mean (average guess) | 165 days | June 20, 2023 |
| Median (middle guess) | 100 days | Apr. 16, 2023 |
| Mode (most common guess) | 725 days | Jan. 3, 2025 |
| (V)'s guess | 90 days | Apr. 6, 2023 |
| (Z)'s guess | 185 days | July 12, 2023 |
A little over 5% of respondents thought McCarthy would make it all the way to the end of the term (725 days) without a motion to vacate being filed. Of course, that means that almost 95% think he won't make it through that time. Meanwhile, the mean guess of 165 days will arrive right as the discussion over raising the debt ceiling will (presumably) start to heat up. The government is expected to hit the limit sometime in early July, at which point Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen can use smoke, mirrors and black magick to keep things going for 2-8 more weeks.
And now, we wait... (Z)