Dem
51
GOP
49
Joe Biden is keenly aware of the MAGA 20's plan to force a hostage crisis on the national debt and use it as a lever to try to gut Social Security and Medicare. He can't wait. His opposition to it is going to feature prominently in his reelection campaign. "Save Social Security—Vote for Biden" fits nicely on a bumper sticker. Biden has been around long enough to know that Social Security is called the "third rail of American politics' for good reason.
What is more than a bit ironic is that the people who care passionately about Social Security and Medicare are seniors, and they form a disproportionate fraction of the Republican base. Threatening to blow up the world economy if you don't get something your base strongly opposes doesn't strike us as a winning formula, but what do we know? On the other hand, Biden knows a bit about politics and he thinks the MAGA 20 plan is a political loser.
A somewhat different approach the MAGA 20 could take to Social Security is not to cut benefits, which is toxic, but to raise the retirement age. It is currently 67. If it were moved to, say, 70, then people would pay into the system for 3 more years and take money out of the system for 3 fewer years. That would keep Social Security solvent much longer. However, telling a 62-year-old that he can't retire in 5 years but has to work another 8 years may not be wildly popular with the Republican base.
The MAGA 20 also want a balanced budget and they want it without tax increases. This is going to require big cuts to the current budget. Social Security is the biggest item in the budget, so it can't be spared or the math doesn't work. But military spending is another huge item that will be hard to avoid. Biden is also going to campaign on protecting the defense budget and accuse the Republicans of weakening national security. It is the reverse of the usual pattern, but if the MAGA 20 continue to push for a balanced budget, Biden and the Democrats are going to keep pushing them to explain how they will do it.
How will this play out? Actually, we got a preview in 2011 when the Republican House, then led by John Boehner, tried the same playbook. Boehner demanded deep cuts to Social Security as the price for not having the U.S. default on its debt and blowing up the world economy. Then-President Barack Obama proposed a deal that would raise the debt ceiling and cut Social Security, but also raise taxes. The tea party flat-out rejected this. The final result of the negotiation was an increase in the debt ceiling but also automatic spending cuts across the board. Whether something like that would be palatable now remains to be seen. The MAGA 20 are not fans of compromise, but sane Republicans might join with the Democrats on some kind of compromise bill because they know who will get the blame for the resulting depression. (V)