Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaker-for-the-moment Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has made a bet, according to political analyst Ronald Brownstein. A big one. Brownstein thinks that McCarthy has bet the House. His gamble is that he can work with the MAGA 20 and control them. In a somewhat similar situation, it didn't work for Dr. Frankenstein and probably won't work for McCarthy. Former speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan understood that such a bet was a very bad idea, didn't make it, and that didn't work either. Now McCarthy is making the opposite bet: Give the MAGA 20 everything they want and spend at least an hour a day praying the monster does not turn on him and eat him for breakfast.
The problem is that the MAGA 20, sooner or later (probably sooner), will do something that the 18 House Republicans in districts Joe Biden won in 2020 can't stomach. Someone will make a motion to vacate the chair and McCarthy will lose the vote. Just about all Democrats expect this scenario to play out. Probably a fair number of Republicans do, too, but they are too scared now to say it out loud.
Conservatives are pooh-poohing this talk, saying that going full-bore MAGA will bring hordes of new conservatives to the polls in 2024. That might be true, but it will also brings hordes of people who hate the MAGAites (MAGAonians? MAGAnolias? MAGAbees?) to the polls as well. Conservative strategist Ken Blackwell said: "The politics of America is turning out a base. It is no longer being decided by 20% of independent voters. So your base matters, your platform matters." What Blackwell seems to be missing is Newton's third law of physics and politics: "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." The past three federal elections haven't shown any sign that going full MAGA is a net winner in general elections, especially in swing states and districts.
Other Republicans also doubt the wisdom of McCarthy's decision. Former Pennsylvania representative Charlie Dent said: "Neither Boehner nor Ryan would have made these kinds of concessions. Is surrendering your way to victory really winning?" Part of the problem is that giving the MAGA 20 a platform to act crazy is only going to accelerate the flight of college-educated Republicans in the suburbs to the Democrats. They may not be wild about the Democrats' tax plans, but they understand that one party is letting nutters call the shots and one is not. It is far from clear that holding the country hostage in an attempt to cut Social Security and Medicare is going to flip enough blue-collar Democrats to compensate for losing the suburbs. In fact, attempts to gut Social Security and Medicare might cost the Republicans votes from blue-collar workers who appreciate their views on transgender issues and CRT but don't want their Social Security cut.
An endless stream of polls, including one sponsored by AARP after the election, have shown that Republican voters hate compromise and want their leaders to stick to their guns. The problem is that Democrats and especially independents—and there are more of them than there are Republicans—want the parties to compromise. The extremely aggressive "my way or the highway" style of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and his friends doesn't sit well with them. The Nov. 2022 exit polls showed that the Democrats carried independents in the recent election. They did it only barely, but it was nonetheless first time in 40 years that Democrats won independents in a midterm. And that was before the Jim Jordans of the world started breathing fire to the national media every day. The reason Democrats won independents, according to the exit polls, is that many of them think Republicans are extremists. Just wait to see what happens when the Republicans prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. And Joe Biden seems to be settling on that very campaign message: "Republicans are extremists." That will resonate even more when the red team demonstrates it every day.
Why are the MAGA 20 behaving like this? Don't they have strategists and pollsters who give them some clue how their show is likely to work out for the Republicans in 2024? Dent has an explanation. He thinks that as long as they can placate their base, "I don't think they care about whether or not Republicans are in the majority." Could well be. Being in the minority is actually easier since you aren't held accountable for actually governing. (V)