Jan.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Backward: Our Predictions for 2022

On Tuesday, we took a look at how the punditry did in predicting 2022. Today, we're putting our own 2022 predictions under the microscope. Recall that we established the boldness value last year, and that a prediction that is more correct than not (i.e., 3/5 or higher) gets the full boldness bonus. Let's get to it:

• A version of Build Back Better will be passed, with a price tag in the neighborhood of $1.5 trillion.
  
  Boldness: 2/5. Biden has staked a lot on this, and will do whatever it takes to get it done, so this isn't that bold.
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (Accuracy: 2.5, Boldness: 0). We were right about the bill, which ended up with the name Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. However, it was for $738 billion, which is nowhere near $1.5 trillion.
  
  
• As a result, Joe Biden's approval rating, per the FiveThirtyEight polling average, will be within 1 point of 50% on Dec. 31.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. Historically, there's been a pretty big ebb and flow, though it's not common for their to be a positive flow for the president right after a midterm election. So, this is bolder than it seems.
  
  Final Score: 0 (Accuracy: 0, Boldness: 0). It was 43.3%. The staff mathematician says that actually is within one point of 50%, but we're pretty sure that's the not him talking, it's Jack Daniel.
  
  
• Also as a result, the Democrats will increase the number of Senate seats they hold.
  
  Boldness: 2.5/5. It's a good map, but not a good environment. So, this is middle-of-the-road bold.
  
  Final Score: 7.5 (Accuracy: 5, Boldness: 2.5). We were right. Thanks, John Sen. Fetterman (D-PA)!
  
  
• The closest Senate race of the year will be in... Nevada.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. There are half a dozen states that could contend for this "honor," so it's a bit bold to settle on one of them.
  
  Final Score: 8 (Accuracy: 5, Boldness: 3). That race was decided by 0.78%, which did indeed make it the closest of the cycle. It was trailed by the Georgia primary election (0.9%), Wisconsin (1.01%), and the Georgia runoff (2.80%).
  
  
• At least one U.S. Senator will resign, leaving a replacement to finish their term.
  
  Boldness: 1/5. We can't stick our neck out on every prediction. Most years feature at least one senator stepping down.
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (Accuracy: 2.5, Boldness: 0). Nebraska's Ben Sasse did announce his resignation in 2022, though it didn't take effect until Jan. 8, 2023. So, we're giving ourselves half credit.
  
  
• By the end of the year, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will no longer be the favorite to become the next Speaker.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. On one hand, he was passed over by another Republican once before (Paul Ryan in 2015). On the other hand, what current member of the House Republican Conference is likely to supplant McCarthy? That group is so divided that there is no consensus leader.
  
  Final Score: 0 (Accuracy: 0, Boldness: 0). He remained the favorite, wire-to-wire, although just barely for much of the time.
  
  
• One among Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Jim Jordan (R-OH), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), and Paul Gosar (R-AZ) will no longer be in office by the end of the year.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. Five incumbents, most of them in very red districts. This is a very aggressive prediction.
  
  Final Score: 0 (Accuracy: 0, Boldness: 0). Except for Boebert, who was nearly unseated, this didn't come even close to happening. This was almost as bad as some of those Nostradamus predictions, and we don't even have the excuse that we died five centuries ago.
  
  
• Stacey Abrams will be elected governor of Georgia.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. Incumbents are not easy to defeat, even if you're a good campaigner and organizer.
  
  Final Score: 0 (Accuracy: 0, Boldness: 0). This, obviously, did not happen either.
  
  
• At least two people in Donald Trump's near orbit will be sentenced to prison time.
  
  Boldness: 2/5. That this will happen is basically beyond doubt. The only question is whether it will happen this year.
  
  Final Score: 7 (Accuracy: 5, Boldness: 2). Steve Bannon and Allen Weisselberg. Weisselberg's sentence did not become "official" until this week, but he struck the plea deal in 2022, so we are giving ourselves full credit.
  
  
• Trump's new social media platform will be a failure by any measure—profitability, audience size, reach. In particular, it will not give Trump what he wants: A means to share every thought that comes into his head with the entire country.
  
  Boldness: 0.5/5. Another one where we didn't exactly stick our necks out.
  
  Final Score: 5 (Accuracy: 4.5, Boldness: 0.5). We're going to ding ourselves just a little, because if Trump says something truly wacky, he still gets some coverage. But beyond that, is there any doubt that we were correct.
  
  
• British prime minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro will both be out of office by the end of the year in a double blow for right-wing populism.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. Bolsonaro is up this year, and could well lose. Johnson doesn't have to hold an election until Jan. 2025, however, and is not the type to resign voluntarily.
  
  Final Score: 9 (Accuracy: 5, Boldness: 4). Nailed it. Though we could not possibly have guessed Johnson's downfall would be due to... Christmas parties.
  
  
• Prince Charles will assume the British throne, taking the regnal name George VII.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. Mum is getting up there in years, so it won't be too much a shock if Charles assumes the throne. Picking a regnal name other than Charles III is pretty bold, though.
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (Accuracy: 2.5, Boldness: 0). Right on the first half, wrong on the second.

Adding it up, we piled up 46 points out of a possible 120. That's a very solid .383, which is better than the pundits did with their 2022 predictions (.317). It is also way better than we did with our 2021 predictions (.260), or than the pundits did in 2021 (.341). Next week, we'll start to figure out how the readers did in forecasting 2022. Tomorrow, however, it will be our predictions for 2023. (Z)