Jan.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Forward: The Experts' Predictions for 2023

Yesterday, we also reviewed the predictions for 2022 made by pundits. They batted .317, which isn't as good as the .372 we initially gave them credit for, but is still pretty good.

Today, it is pundit predictions for 2023. Recall that we are awarding boldness scores right now, so that the judgment is made with the proper context.

• Paul Callan, CNN: "In polling, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will lead all Democrats."
  
  Boldness: 4/5. There is certainly a lot of talk about Newsom, but we think his popularity outside California (and, for that matter, inside California) has been greatly exaggerated.
  
  
• Dylan Matthews, Vox: "Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024."
  
  Boldness: 2.5/5. On one hand, he still commands the loyalty of much of the base. On the other hand, Ron DeSantis and criminal indictments are looming. This seems like something close to a coin flip, to us.
  
  
• Edward Luce, Financial Times: "Will Donald Trump be indicted? Yes."
  
  Boldness: 1/5. We think Trump cannot avoid his legal troubles entirely, given how badly exposed he is in both Georgia and the Jack Smith investigations. And if an indictment is going to come down, it really has to come down this year, given that prosecutors don't want to interfere with the elections.
  
  
• Mark Herrmann, Above the Law: "After Trump is indicted, there will be violence."
  
  Boldness: 3/5. We doubt this, at least a little, because Trump's most fanatical supporters are widely dispersed and, by all indications, kind of cowardly. Plus, they've seen what has been happening to the 1/6 insurrectionists.
  
  
• Dylan Matthews, Vox: "The Supreme Court will rule that affirmative action is unconstitutional."
  
  Boldness: 0.5/5. They've already heard the necessary case (Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College). And the conservative majority, with John Roberts taking the lead, believes social inequality is a thing of the past. It's nearly inconceivable that two of the six right-wingers jump ship to vote with the three liberals.
  
  
• Mark Herrmann, Above the Law: "At least one of the defamation cases against a conservative or a conservative news organization will result in a plaintiff's verdict in 2023."
  
  Boldness: 2.5/5. We think the outcome is nearly certain; the only question is whether it will come as rapidly as Herrmann predicts. That is a very close call.
  
  
• Brian Sullivan, CNBC: "The growth rate of EV sales will actually drop in 2023 from 2022."
  
  Boldness: 4/5. Sullivan has not been in the market for an electric vehicle, it would seem. There is much pent-up demand, and that is before the tax credits for some EVs were brought back to life. It's true that there might be a recession in 2023, but the current market demo for EVs tends to be somewhat less affected by recessions than Americans as a whole.
  
  
• Alice Stewart, CNN: "I'm encouraged to see gas prices level off after record highs. I hope to see gas around $3.80 per gallon by the end of 2023."
  
  Boldness: 2/5. The current number is $3.26. Given what happened with gas prices in 2022, $3.80 is very plausible. Note that we'll give full credit for accuracy as long as the Dec. 31 figure is within 10 cents of $3.80.
  
  
• R.J. Fulton, The Motley Fool: "I believe 2023 will be a year in which Bitcoin builds momentum to get closer to the $40,000 mark."
  
  Boldness: 4.5/5. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $17,000. It is... ambitious to predict that any investment instrument will more than double in value in one year. And when it's a type of crypto, a market segment that has many people skittish due to the FTX meltdown? We are very, very skeptical.
  
  
• Laura Coates, CNN: "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy."
  
  Boldness: 3/5. Can you win a Nobel Peace Prize for successfully waging a war? Even if it's a war of self-defense? Guess we're going to find out.
  
  
• Michael Weidokal, Cleveland.com: "At least in terms of the size of its population, India will overtake China to become the world's largest country in 2023."
  
  Boldness: 3/5. China's population is currently 1,453,326,102. India's is 1,414,199,747. Can the latter outgrow the former by nearly 40 million people? It's plausible, but a little bit bold.
  
  
• Steven Overly, Politico: "Trade tensions with China will grow."
  
  Boldness: 0.5/5. We are tempted to give this a 0.25 or a 0.1. This is like predicting the Detroit Lions won't win the Super Bowl. It's as inevitable as death and taxes.
  
  
• Nostradamus, French mystic: "Because they disapproved of his divorce, a man who, later, they considered unworthy, the people will force out the King of the Islands, a man will replace him who never expected to be king."
  
  Boldness: 5/5. This is understood to refer to Charles III, although for it to work, he'd have to hand the throne off to Prince Harry. There is zero chance that Charles abdicates; William is only getting that throne from his father's cold, dead hands. And there is even less than zero chance that the Windsors allow the throne to devolve upon Harry, who is persona non grata right now, to say the least.
  
  
• Baba Vanga, Bulgarian mystic: "A devastating solar storm."
  
  Boldness: 5/5. The last one happened in 1859. So, as a matter of pure numbers, it's unlikely that one will happen in any given year. And the good news for us is that if it does happen, the world's electronic infrastructure will be so screwed up for so long, we probably won't be able to publish an item in 2024 admitting we were wrong.

Tomorrow, it will be our predictions for 2023. (Z)