Dem
51
GOP
49
As we noted on Monday, the Virginia state Senate seat vacated by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) was up yesterday. And the winner is Aaron Rouse (D), who narrowly defeated Kevin Adams (R), 19,430 votes to 19,082. Though Adams was in the lead when the in-person votes were counted, the absentees broke 4-to-1 for Rouse, and that was enough to seal the deal. The margin of victory is about 0.9%, which is outside the 0.5% margin that would allow Adams to request a recount, per Virginia law.
Given that this took place a hop, skip and a jump from Washington, and given that it's going to be the only hotly contested election for many months, we would very much like to be able to draw some broader conclusions from it. But with less than 40,000 people voting, and with the margin of victory less than 400 votes, what can we really say? Not much.
That said, there is one notable significance to this outcome. The Virginia Senate was already tilted in the Democrats' favor, and now it's just a little bit more so. Once Rouse is seated, the body will have 22 Democrats, 17 Republicans, and one member who is Republican by registration but who does not caucus with either party (Amanda Chase). Even with a slim 52-48 Republican majority in the Virginia General Assembly, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) will not be able to get anything extreme passed into law as he tries to score points with the base in advance of a possible presidential run. Undoubtedly, he is very jealous of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) right now. (Z)