Dem
51
GOP
49
Imagine that you are an upwardly mobile politician in California. The governor's mansion might not be open for 4 years and one of the two U.S. Senate seats is going to be locked up for a good, long time—probably decades. That means that if you're after one of the really big prizes, your eye is on the other U.S. Senate seat right now. That would be the one occupied by Dianne Feinstein (D), who is 89, and who may well be in poor physical and/or cognitive health.
Pursuing that seat does come with a couple of logistical challenges, though. The first is that it's not actually vacant yet. Feinstein has not yet announced her 2024 plans, and though it's widely assumed that she will step down, the niceties dictate that after a 40-year career serving California in various offices, she should be allowed to exit on her own timeline. Jumping the gun here could come off as a little bit (or a lot) crass.
That said, the second logistical challenge is that the Democratic bench is deep, and is chock full of ambitious types. So, while a candidate would prefer not to step on Feinstein's toes, they would also prefer not to be caught with their pants down when the dominoes do start falling. The first person to enter a major political race gets a heck of a lot more attention than the sixth person.
Rep. Katie Porter (D) took a long look at the situation, and decided, in effect "Feinstein's toes be damned." And so, the Representative formally announced yesterday that she's running for the Senate in 2024. "California needs a warrior in the Senate—to stand up to special interests, fight the dangerous imbalance in our economy, and hold so-called leaders like Mitch McConnell accountable for rigging our democracy," decreed the would-be senator in her announcement.
Porter has a number of strengths that will serve her well. She's charismatic and hard-working, and is one of the best fundraisers in the House, having hauled in a staggering $25 million in the last cycle. She's also beloved by many progressive voters for her lefty politics and her acerbic nature. Just last week, during the speaker mess, photos of her reading the book The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fu*k went viral on social media:
Knowing full well she would be on camera a lot, Porter did not select that book by accident. So, add "politically savvy" to the list of strengths.
That said, Porter does have a couple of problem areas that should be noted. The first is that she has something of a reputation for being overly concerned about the needs of Katie Porter. It was, as noted, at least a little crass for her to rain on Dianne Feinstein's parade. And, speaking of rain, California is experiencing terrible flooding right now, which makes the timing of the announcement doubly questionable. Even if she wasn't going to wait for the Senator to make up her mind, Porter should at least have waited until the floods subsided.
In addition, it is not clear exactly how good a fit Porter is for the state of California. She just won reelection in her district, CA-47, by a relatively narrow margin—51.7% to 48.3%—against a relatively unknown former state assemblyman, Scott Baugh (R). That probably reflects the fact that CA-47 is purple (D+3), while Porter is more a deep-blue type of politician. The problem here is that, in statewide elections, Californians tend to prefer candidates that are lefty, but not too lefty. Given the choice between, say, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and Joe Manchin (D-WV), California voters would be likely to go with Murphy.
In any case, the race is on. Feinstein says her decision will be coming within the next couple of months. We shall see if Reps. Adam Schiff (D), Ro Khanna (D), Barbara Lee (D), Eric Swalwell (D), etc. decide to wait for that, or if they also jump the gun. (Z)