Dem
51
GOP
49
When Jen Kiggans (R) was elected to the U.S. House, she left behind an empty seat in SD-07 of the Virginia state Senate. A special election will be held tomorrow to fill it. The state Senate is currently 21D, 18R, with one vacancy. No matter who wins tomorrow's special election, Democrats will still hold the majority, but a two-seat majority would be a lot more effective at blocking Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) than a one-seat majority. Since Youngkin is often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, his track record in getting things done could be something his opponents talk about. If the Virginia Democrats can pick up the seat and block everything the governor wants, that will certainly crimp his style.
The district includes parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The candidates are Aaron Rouse (D) and Kevin Adams (R). Both are Black. The district is a swing district and could go either way. Both parties have won it in the past.
Although the recent, er, activities, in the U.S. House are not specifically relevant to the Virginia state Senate, Virginia is close enough to D.C. that most voters are probably aware of what went on there. It is at least possible that some swing voters came away thinking that Republicans don't actually want to govern, and that could affect their vote tomorrow. We don't know if there will be any exit polls. We certainly hope so, because if anything is a test of whether the circus in the House affects voters, it is surely a special election in Virginia 4 days after the House finally elected a speaker. (V)