Jan.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

What Will House Republicans Actually Do Now?

House Republicans finally elected a speaker. Now what? OK, writing and adopting the rules comes next and then assigning members to committees and picking chairs. But then what? Passing laws is pointless because any law that could make it through the Republican-controlled House will not make it through the Senate. Nevertheless, the House may pass some bills for show, like one banning abortion nationwide starting 60 minutes prior to conception or one forbidding the teaching of critical race theory in pre-schools. These are simply to show the folks back home, with no intention of even reaching Joe Biden's desk, let alone getting him to sign them.

So will the House members just go home and start their 2024 campaigns? Not quite yet. Here are a few of the activities House Republicans are going to focus on in lieu of passing laws.

• Funding the government: The current funding for the government lasts until the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 30), but come late summer, the Republicans will have to come up with funding bills for the next FY, probably per executive department rather an an omnibus. There will be huge battles over funding since most Republicans are not on the same page as the MAGA 20 crew. If Kevin McCarthy allows the sane Republicans to work with the Democrats on bills that the Senate might accept, the MAGA 20 crew will call for a vote to vacate the chair. And that's assuming he has made it to the fall.
  
  
• The debt hostage drama: By summer, the government's authority to issue more debt will run out and the debt limit will need to be raised, The whole idea is crazy, since if Congress really wishes to reduce the debt it should either cut spending, increase taxes, or both. Instead it is trying to repeal mathematics. If the debt limit is not raised, the U.S. government will default on its debt, which is virtually certain to cause a worldwide depression. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) really, really, really does not want that because he knows who will get the blame, but he has no clout with the MAGA 20 crew in the House, who love chaos for its own sake. One way out is for Biden to request the Dept. of the Treasury to issue, say, five platinum trillion-dollar coins and deposit them in the Fed's bank account, thus reducing its debt. This tactic is a last resort, but it could be a bargaining tool to keep the MAGA 20 crew from doing real damage to the economy.
  
  
• Impeachments: Some House members want blood. Specifically, they want to impeach someone for something. It doesn't matter who and for what. It's all for show. It probably won't be Joe Biden because McConnell and others will remind the newcomers what happened when the House impeached Bill Clinton in 1998 (Hint: It didn't work out so well for the red team.) The most likely target is DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for some made-up charge about the border. But that could backfire, too, especially with Latino voters. If you want a real dark horse, they could impeach... Hillary Clinton. That would thrill the base, and might generate less of a backlash. Since she is not in office right now, they could not remove her from office, but they could try to bar her from future officeholding. The Senate will never actually go for it, of course, but that could be the stated purpose.
  
  
• Hunter Biden: This one is guaranteed. The House Oversight Committee, led by Rep. James Comer (R-KY), is going to turn Hunter Biden's life upside down and examine it minute-by-minute since he entered kindergarten (Did he ever take a toy from another child, especially a child whose parents were Republicans? Did a Chinese-American child ever give him a birthday present?). Young Biden has not led a ideal life, but as far as we know now, he has never broken any laws. If he got China to give him some money and he didn't do anything in return for it, then all he can be accused of is treating the Chinese like suckers. And even if he did break laws, Biden is a private citizen, and his behavior is not germane to anything else unless his father is also somehow responsible for the illegal conduct. In any event, this will be all over the right-wing media for months and months. One interesting question: What if Comer subpoenas the First Son and he cites the "Meadows Rule," saying "I don't have to come if I don't want to!"?
  
  
• Investigations of the DoJ: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has promised to investigate the DoJ and FBI over dozens of matters. Jordan already asked AG Merrick Garland for a slew of documents and Garland replied that Jordan had no authority to ask for them. As soon as Jordan becomes Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, he will ask again. Garland will probably take his time responding and may refuse turning over many of them citing Mumble Jumble (preferably in Latin). If Garland refuses point-blank, or slow walks the whole thing, Jordan can refer Garland to the DoJ for prosecution. Good luck with that. Jordan will also be confronted with all the things he said about witch hunts when the Select Committee was trying to get reluctant witnesses to show up. Please fasten your seat belt to avoid whiplash.
  
  
• The southern border: Alejandro Mayorkas might be called to testify about the southern border. If so, he will surely show up and tell the committee that the problem there lies with Congress. If it wants something done there it has to pass the right laws and provide enough funding so they can be enforced. His answers could form the nominal basis for his impeachment, which will fail in the Senate, especially if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer adopts the same rules as McConnell adopted for the impeachment trials of Donald Trump (no witnesses, no testimony, no facts, just a quick vote and it's over).
  
  
• The Afghanistan withdrawal: The withdrawal was messy. It happened in a hurry because Donald Trump agreed to an unrealistic timetable with the Taliban. The Republicans will milk it for all it is worth, but we suspect that most voters have moved on and it won't resonate, especially since part of the problem was due to Trump and Democrats on the committee will hammer on that.
  
  
• COVID-19: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee wants to find out how COVID-19 got started. Two detailed studies have already shown that it probably originated at a market in Wuhan, China and not in some research lab in China financed by the CIA. Maybe the Committee will draw up a report recommending that China expunge all recipes for sweet and sour bat from Chinese cookbooks and call it a day.
  

The items about laws that must pass (budgets and the debt limit) will get plenty of attention. The others will get plenty of attention on Fox but elsewhere much less unless there is some actual news there. The upcoming session of the House will probably be one of the least productive ever. The Senate will probably also have some investigations, as we pointed out last week, and they could conceivably even overshadow the House ones. (V)