Dem
51
GOP
49
One of the concessions the MAGA 20 squeezed out of Kevin McCarthy is that the House Rules Committee would consist of three of its members, six other Republicans, and four Democrats, a hugely disproportionate number of MAGA Republicans given the distribution of House seats. What the Rules Committee does is definitely inside baseball, but it is very important. It manages the flow of bills before they hit the floor. The Committee can kill any bill its members dislike by not allowing a floor vote on it. Alternatively, if the Committee doesn't like a bill, it can tell the chair of the committee that sent it to kindly "fix" it, something that committee chair may not take kindly to. The Committee also determines which amendments can be proposed for each bill on the floor, as normal order includes a limit on the total number of amendments that can be brought up for consideration.
Normally, the speaker loads the committee with enough loyal friends to make a majority. That won't be the case this time. Any time the three MAGA 20 members and four Democrats want to kill a bill or have it rewritten, they have the votes for that. So McCarthy has already lost control of what is probably the most important committee in the House.
One of the things the Rules Committee may try to do is restore the "regular order." This is what you learned in high school civics class about "how a bill becomes a law." Some member introduces a bill, it is debated at length in the appropriate committee, a vote is taken, if passed, it goes to the floor where amendments can be offered and debated, and then a final vote is taken. If it passes, it goes to the other chamber, which usually makes changes. That results in a conference committee that irons out the differences by making compromises. It doesn't work like that anymore. If one party has the trifecta, the two majority leaders concoct bills in secret and then ram them through. If Congress is divided, it lurches from one hostage crisis to the next. The MAGA 20 may start out trying to restore the regular order, but once its members see how much power they have, they may lose interest in introducing democracy into the House.
One of the most important functions the Rules Committee has performed for previous speakers is keeping toxic bills from the floor so members would not have to take tough votes on them that could be used in future campaign ads against them. For example, in past sessions, bills were introduced to create "Medicare for all." Democrats in swing districts absolutely did not want any on-the-record votes on that since such a vote was guaranteed to anger either moderates or progressives. Much better for the Rules Committee to send it back from whence it came with a Post-It note saying: "Please remove the Medicare for all parts of this bill." Or to just put it in the paper shredder directly.
A bill to abolish Social Security or Medicare is not something many Republicans would want to take a recorded vote on. Nor would a bill to abolish the IRS. But the MAGA 20 and Democrats might well be willing, even eager, to have a floor vote on abolishing, say, Medicare. For Democrats, this is an easy vote. Every Democrat would vote "No" and make campaign ads about the vote ("I protected Medicare! Vote for me!"). But for some Republicans it puts them in a real bind; a "Yes" vote could doom them in the general election in districts with many senior citizens, while a "No" vote could be fatal in a primary. Much better to have the Rules Committee make sure no vote is taken. But now McCarthy has lost control of it.
One source told Politico: "Members can no longer be protected from politically toxic conservative wish lists." The MAGA 20 members and the Democrats may find common ground forcing ordinary Republicans to make up-to-down votes on bills they really don't want to vote on. This confluence of interest is because MAGA 20 Republicans regard squishy Republicans as being as bad as Democrats, and they are rarely in the mood to protect them. When sane Republicans look to McCarthy to protect them from votes they don't want to take, he will be powerless. As a consequence, his days as speaker may already be numbered. At 2 a.m. just after McCarthy won election on the 15th ballot, a CNN reporter asked Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) how long it would for conservatives to make a motion to vacate the chair. he said: "Tomorrow?" He meant it as a joke. Maybe it will be more of a prophesy.
And on that note, and as a reminder, we have put up a poll if readers care to give their best guess as to how many days into his tenure it will take before McCarthy is subject to a motion to vacate (choose 725 if you think he'll dodge that bullet completely). And if you have comments on why you chose the number you did, send 'em in. Results on Friday. (V)