Dem
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GOP
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Donald Trump and some other Republicans have been railing about early voting on the grounds that it helps the Democrats. Some new data suggest that this is not true and that early voting does not give either party an advantage over the other. If anything, Trump's crusade against early voting hurts the Republicans because if there are problems on Election Day (such as bad weather or malfunctioning equipment that generates long lines to vote) and Democrats have already banked most of their votes, the "Election Day only" strategy he likes can cost the GOP votes.
The new data come from a deep red state, Kentucky, a swing state, Nevada, and a deep blue state, Vermont. In all three states, the legislatures dramatically expanded mail-in voting and early in-person voting in 2022. The results are pretty much the same as before the expansion of voting options. In other words, making it easier to vote did not change the status quo in any of the states compared to previous elections.
In Kentucky, Republicans held the five House seats and Senate seat they held before the election. Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams (R) said: "We've shown that it [early voting] is bipartisan. Both sides are comfortable using it." In Vermont, which switched to universal mail-in in 2022, the Democrats held the offices they had previously held (representative and senator) and the Republicans held the office they previously held (governor). Mail-in voting didn't change anything. In Nevada, the congressional seats remained the same but the governor's mansion changed hands. In the old-style voting in 2018, the Democrat Steve Sisolak won the governor's mansion. In 2022, with mail-in voting, a Republican, Joe Lombardo, ousted Sisolak. That hardly argues that mail-in voting helps the Democrats. Lombardo undoubtedly won for other reasons, most likely that with crime a major issue, he, as the sheriff of Clark County, could make a case that he was the best person to deal with it.
Republicans often rant about the security of absentee ballots, but there were no security incidents in any of the three states that expanded mail-in voting.
Not all states are fine with making voting easier. Some states that made it easier during the pandemic are now reverting to the old way. Texas, for example, has reversed drive-by voting in Harris County (Houston).
Texas aside, the long-term trend seems to be for more mail-in voting. Eight states now conduct all elections by mail: California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, and Washington. It is mostly Democratic states, with Utah an exception. With Vermont as an outlier, mail-in voting is getting more traction in the West than in the East. However, the Democrats now have the trifecta in Michigan and Minnesota, so there could be changes there this year.
Two states, Nebraska and North Dakota, allow some counties to have all-mail elections upon request of the county. Nine other states (Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, and Wyoming) allow some special elections to be conducted entirely by mail. Four other states (Idaho, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico) allow certain small jurisdictions to conduct all-mail-in elections. In short, there is definitely movement toward voting by mail around the country. ((V)