Jan.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

2023 Elections, Part II: Foreign Elections

Last week, we took a look at the biggest domestic elections scheduled for 2023. Now, let's run down the biggest foreign elections (and recall that, unlike the U.S., many nations allow snap elections, so there could plausibly be a surprise entrant or two to the list next year):

• Nigeria (Feb. 25): Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, and perhaps its most influential. And it's been rocked by ongoing violence from extremist groups, some of whom hope to derail the electoral process. You know, the kind of thing that would never, ever happen in the United States. President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited, and 16 parties are running candidates in the race to replace him. Polls suggest that the frontrunner is Peter Obi of the Labour Party (left), followed by former VP Alhaji Atiku Abubaker of the People's Democratic Party (center-right) and then Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu of Buhari's own All Progressives Congress (center-left). If no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then Nigeria will have its first-ever runoff.
  
  
• Turkey (June 18): Two things are true of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: (1) he's pretty corrupt and (2) he would like to be president for a bit longer. He will try to win another 5-year term this year. Working in his favor are his skill at dirty politics, and the fact that the opposition is splintered and is having trouble settling on a candidate (or multiple candidates). Working against him is the aforementioned reputation for corruption, as well as a Turkish economy that's sagging right now. If you think inflation's been bad in the U.S., then hold onto your hat while we tell you that in Turkey, it's hit 80%.
  
  
• Zimbabwe (sometime prior to Sept. 1): In 2017, the Zimbabweans finally tossed Robert Mugabe out of office. In 2018, the country held its first post-Mugabe elections, and they were a mess, both in terms of corruption and in terms of violence. This year, the country will take its second post-Mugabe shot at running a proper election. The ruling ZANU PF party would like a clean election, because that's good PR for outsiders, and it's outsiders (like the International Monetary Fund) who send a lot of money Zimbabwe's way. But even more important to ZANU PF is staying in power, and if that takes some shady behavior, then so be it.
  
  
• Pakistan (sometime prior to Oct. 13): Pakistan has a lot of problems in general, and it's in particularly rough shape right now. There's corruption, a massive national debt, and crumbling infrastructure (particularly in terms of delivering electricity to homes). Last year, Pakistanis also suffered massive flooding that left 30% of the country under water. The fellow who should be PM right now, Imran Khan, was cashiered in a no-confidence vote in April of last year. No Pakistani PM, in fact, has ever managed to make it to the end of their term. Khan's successor, Shehbaz Sharif, must call for an election by Oct. 12, but may choose an earlier date. Because Sharif is unpopular, Khan is hoping to get his old job back, though he (Khan) is currently recovering from an assassination attempt. One wonders why anyone would want this job.
  
  
• Ukraine (sometime prior to Oct. 29): President Volodymyr Zelenskyy isn't up, but the Ukrainian parliament is. If the war with Russia is still ongoing, as seems likely, this should give a clue as to how well Ukrainian morale is holding up.
  
  
• Argentina (Oct. 29): Argentina has three major parties: Frente de Todos (center-left), Juntos por el Cambio (center-right), and La Libertad Avanza (libertarian-populist). Incumbent president Alberto Fernández, who is a member of Frente de Todos, is running for reelection, but he's facing serious headwinds. If you thought the 80% inflation in Turkey was bad, it's been about 90% in Argentina. So, feel free to cry for them, even if they did win the World Cup. Fernández might well have been challenged by his own VP, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, but she's now in prison due to a corruption conviction, and is barred from future officeholding. So, the most dangerous challenger to Fernández is probably Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza, who has been described as the Donald Trump of Argentina.
  
  
• Bangladesh (December): Bangladesh has a rather unusual electoral process. In the general election, 300 seats in the unicameral parliament are filled. Then, those 300 folks vote for 50 additional members, all of whom must be women, so as to make sure the legislature is appropriately representative. Once all 350 are seated, then they vote for a prime minister and a president from their ranks. The former office is the one that matters, and the current holder, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is unpopular due to... wait for it... corruption and a very bad economy. She will draw multiple opponents from her own left-wing alliance (the Awami League) and also from the opposition right-wing alliance (the Bangladesh Nationalist Party). Bangladesh, like many of the other nations listed here, also has a long history of violence during elections. The newly created electoral commission will try to fix that, but it's a tall order.

Those are the biggies, at least for now. Again, it's well within the realm of possibility that other nations will have to hold currently unscheduled elections sometime in 2023. Heck, these days, you can pretty much already pencil in the U.K. and Israel for that. (Z)