Dem
51
GOP
49
Five Republicans are leaving the Senate: Roy Blunt (MO), Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), Richard Shelby (AL), and Pat Toomey (PA). None of them are firebrands. In fact, all of them are low-key dealmakers. There are still a few Republican senators willing to make deals with the Democrats, including Sens. Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK). But it will take nine Republican votes to invoke cloture on most bills, so these five votes will be sorely missed.
Burr and Blunt backed several bipartisan bills last year. Portman was the lead Republican on the infrastructure bill that passed. Shelby shepherded the bill to fund the government across the finish line. Toomey has long-supported background checks for gun purchases. They believed that their job was to pass laws, not enrage their constituents.
Blunt will be replaced by Sen.-elect Eric Schmitt (R-MO), who is trumpier than Donald Trump and is unlikely to make any deals with anyone. Burr will be replaced by Trump's handpicked candidate, Sen.-elect Ted Budd (R-NC), one of the few of Trump's choices who won. Portman will be replaced by the fire-breathing Sen.-elect J.D. Vance (R-OH), who is certainly not going to be a dealmaker. Shelby will be replaced by his chief of staff, Sen.-elect Katie Britt (R-AL). She will follow in his footsteps and try to work with the Democrats where possible. As a junior senator she won't be a leader, but she will probably vote for bipartisan bills if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) asks her to. Toomey will be replaced by a Democrat, John Fetterman (PA), who will do whatever Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants him to do.
With the inmates running the asylum at the other end of the Capitol, few laws are likely to be passed, but once in a while there will be a required vote to keep the government's lights on. That will be harder now than it was. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) will miss his former Republican colleagues and said: "I worry about it. When you have a history of working across the aisle, when you lose them it's tough." Blunt said: "The members who are leaving are among the least angry. And many, in many cases, may be the most likely to reach out and figure out how to get something done."
Still, the situation in the Senate is not hopeless. The only member of the Republican leadership who is gone is Blunt. The rest of it remains intact. One new senator who is a blank slate is whoever replaces the retiring Ben Sasse. When Gov.-elect Jim Pillen (R-NE) is sworn in, one of his first acts is expected to be the appointment of the departing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) to fill Sasse's seat. He's never been in national politics and didn't campaign for the seat so no one really knows how he will behave. (V)