Dem
51
GOP
49
It has been more than 7 weeks since Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) announced that she would retire at the end of her current term. Usually, an announcement like that leads half a dozen candidates to toss their hats in the ring, just so they can get a jump on the competition. Heck, over in California, there were at least three declared candidates even before Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said she was stepping down. But in Michigan, there was virtually nothing until yesterday, when Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) said that she will run for the seat.
If you would like to see Slotkin's announcement video, here it is:
It's pretty standard, but it's solid. As is typical, it emphasizes the Representative's Michigan roots, talks about her backstory and the challenges she's overcome, refers to the issues she's running on (albeit very, very vaguely), and points out her bipartisan bonafides (she worked for George W. Bush and Barack Obama).
The Democratic bench in Michigan is quite deep, so Slotkin's announcement won't be a relief for Democratic Party leaders the way that, say, Sen. Jon Tester's (D-MT) was. That said, the Representative is probably the strongest potential candidate the Party had (outside of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, maybe). Slotkin has consistently been elected from purple districts (her current district, MI-07, is R+2), and the Wolverine State is also purple (specifically, R+1). And she actually started her career representing MI-08, which is also the district that Stabenow represented before heading to the Senate. Both Slotkin's current district and her former district cover the blue-collar areas north and west of Detroit, so she has some experience with winning over Obama-Trump voters. And, presuming she makes the general, she will win Detroit and the big college towns (Ann Arbor, East Lansing, etc.). So, she's a formidable candidate.
Thus far, as noted, Slotkin has no competition on the Democratic side of the contest. And indeed, most of the really serious threats to her have already declined, among them Whitmer, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Detroit mayor Mike Duggan, and state Sen. Mallory Morrow (who came to national attention with her pointed remarks in response to a Republican colleague who had accused her of grooming and sexualizing kindergarteners). The remaining folks who might mount a serious challenge to Slotkin from the center are Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. Debbie Dingell, while the biggest remaining threat from the left is surely Rep. Rashida Tlaib. But all three of these folks might decide Slotkin is too strong a candidate. So, the Representative could well have smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination.
On the Republican side, the bench is not so impressive. The problem is that the Michigan GOP is bitterly divided between Trumpers like Tudor Dixon and normal Republicans like former representative Peter Meijer. There could be a bitter primary between one or more candidates from each of the factions. And whichever candidate eventually advances, it will be hard for them to unify the Republican vote; the Trumpers will look askance at a Meijer-type candidate and the normal Republicans will look askance at a Dixon-like candidate. Maybe the odds of losing, either in the primary or in the general, are why only one candidate has declared on this side of the race. And that person is an unknown (Nikki Snyder, member of the Michigan State Board of Education).
Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball had this race as "Lean D" while Inside Elections had it as a "Battleground." Those assessments were made before Slotkin entered the race; now that she's in there may be adjustments. In our view, given her strength and the weaknesses of the potential Republican field, "Likely D" is probably most correct. Certainly, this isn't going to be the seat on which control of the Senate turns. If the blue team loses this one, then it will surely mean they also lost two or three among West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. (Z)