Feb.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Adam Frisch Will Square Off Against Boebert Again

Last November, Democrat Adam Frisch came within 565 votes of unseating Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO). In fact, it was the last of the 435 House races to be officially called. Yesterday, Frisch announced that he's going to be back for another go at it in 2024.

This news was very, very predictable. Not only do people who lose by a fraction of a percent tend to want to take another bite at the apple, but Frisch also conceded defeat very quickly, long before the race was officially called. The obvious reason to do this was to communicate that he's a good guy and not a sore loser, in anticipation of future political campaigns. It was actually a very shrewd move, since concessions have no legal significance. So, if he had somehow come out on top after a recount, he still would have been sent to Washington.

Boebert should be very nervous, for several reasons:

• Frisch is going to be campaigning, full time, for more than twice as long as he did last time. And now he's a veteran.
  
  
• Frisch is going to get generous support from the DCCC and other Party organs.
  
  
• Frisch is going to collect a boatload of money from Democrats across the nation who hate the nutty MAGA members. Sending $20 to the opponent of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) or Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greeme (R-GA) is a waste, but sending $20 to Frisch might actually help secure a win. So, he's going to get most of that anti-MAGA-member money.
  
  
• Democratic voters in the district are going to be aware of how close they came last time and are going to vote in droves in 2024.
  
  
• Presidential years tend to favor Democrats.

Of course, Boebert knows what's coming this time, and can prepare. But what does that really mean for her? She's got her "look at me!" approach, and the dial is already turned up to 10. What trick, tool, or gear is available to her that she's not already using? Further, as she tries to match the mountains of money that Frisch will raise, Boebert could really use some help from the NRCC. Inasmuch as the NRCC is controlled by Kevin McCarthy, that help might not be forthcoming.

In any case, this is now the most interesting 2024 House race in the country. The only way we can see it losing that distinction is if "George Santos" actually tries to run for reelection. (Z)

Here are vote-gettingest senators #3 through #12:

3. Chuck Schumer (D-NY; 18.8 million votes)
4. Alan Cranston (D-CA; 15.7 million)
5. Ted Kennedy (D-MA; 13.4 million)
6. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY; 13.3 million)
7. Dick Durbin (13.2 million)
8. Jacob Javits (R-NY; 12.6 million)
9. Carl Levin (D-MI; 12.0 million)
10. John Cornyn (R-TX; 11.3 million)
11. Arlen Specter (D/R/D-PA; 11.2 million)
12. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX; 10.5 million)