Feb.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Issues That Will Matter in 2024

The Hill has an article listing seven issues that will define the 2024 elections. We tend to agree with the list, although which is most important is hard to say, so we will present them in alphabetical order.

• Abortion: Democrats believe that abortion was the issue that saved them in 2022 and they are going to push it for all it's worth in 2024. They might even try to have more ballot initiatives about it. In 2022, there were six of them and the pro-abortion forces won them all. If more state legislatures pass laws banning abortion in their states, that will keep the flame burning brightly.
  
  
• Crime: Crime is a perennial issue. It never goes away. Crime is much lower than it used to be, but few voters know that and Republicans are very good at scaring people. Think Willie Horton and even earlier. This tends to be a bigger issue among Republicans than among Democrats, and if the GOP-ers running for office talk about it enough, it could motivate Republicans to vote.
  
  
• Education: This issue got Glenn Youngkin elected and Ron DeSantis is clearly going to make it central to his presidential campaign. The Democrats will talk about how we need more teachers and pay them better. Republicans will say school should be about readin', writin' and 'rithmetic, and not about why little Johnny has two mommies and no daddy. And certainly not about anything touching on race. If it were up to the Republicans, American history would jump from 1840 to 1880 with nothing in between except a brief comment that the North and South disagreed about some things, but eventually it was worked out.
  
  
• Foreign policy: "Foreign policy" is really too vague. What this really means is "How do we deal with Russia and China?" Very few politicians like or trust China, but when it gets down to specifics, differences emerge. Republicans tend to favor saber rattling. Democrats tend to look for ways to reduce America's dependence on China. The Democrats will certainly claim that Biden's CHIPS Act, which has already resulted in huge semiconductor factories being built in Ohio and Arizona, is the right start and Donald Trump's tariffs are useless and pointless.
  
  
• Immigration: This is an old Republican standby. One or more House committees are sure to hold hearings on it and decry the Democrats' for supporting "open borders," which the Democrats don't actually support. Republicans would like to stop all immigration if they could. Democrats are more likely to focus on providing a path to citizenship for the dreamers.
  
  
• LGBTQ+ issues: This is probably the second biggest item in the culture wars, after abortion. Republicans oppose transgirls (who are biologically boys) playing on girls sports teams. They also oppose giving puberty blockers to minors, even with the consent of their parents. Many Democrats (but not all) support these things. Same-sex marriage isn't so much of an issue since Congress passed a law effectively legalizing it nationwide. Still, there are related issues to be fought over, such as whether same-sex couple should be allowed to adopt children. This tends to be a bigger issue with couples consisting of two men than with couples consisting of two women, since in the latter case the couple can often use conventional technology to acquire a baby.
  
  
• Social Security: Democrats are going to hammer Republicans with Rick Scott's plan to have all federal legislation automatically sunset after 5 years. Scott can hop up and down and holler all he wants to, but he published a plan to do that and Democrats aren't going to let go of it. Republicans will also claim that Social Security (and Medicare) will soon go bankrupt. Democrats will say: "Raise the cap" (the threshold above which salaries and wages are not subject to FICA deductions). This is a bit awkward for Biden since he said he wouldn't raise taxes for people making under $400,000. Currently the cap is $160,200. Biden could push for applying the Social Security tax to incomes from $400,000 to $1 million, thus creating a donut hole between $160,200 and $400,000. It is a dumb way to run a tax system, but it could be done.

As usual, these are only the "known unknowns." By 2024, there could be some "unknown unknowns" as well. By definition, we don't now what they might be. (V)