Dem
51
GOP
49
You win some, you lose some. On Wednesday, Donald Trump got a small win on the ballot access front when the Michigan Supreme Court allowed him to remain on that state's primary ballot. On Thursday, he got a considerably bigger loss when Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) decided the former president would be removed from that state's primary ballot.
You can read Bellows' decision here, if you wish. It's 34 pages and it's very thorough and very well-reasoned. She engaged directly with the constitutional issues that this matter raises, finding that Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is self-executing, that it applies to presidents and presidential candidates, and that Trump engaged in insurrection. There is some talk that Trump did not get due process here, but there was a hearing and there were opportunities to submit briefs, which Trump's team availed themselves of.
Thursday's decision breaks new ground in two important ways. First, although there was an adjudication process, this is the first ballot-access decision rendered by an elected, executive branch official, as opposed to a judge or a group of judges. Second, this is the first decision that, if it stands, would likely cost Trump electoral votes. He's not competitive in Colorado (where he lost access), nor is he terribly likely to win Minnesota or Michigan (where he has retained access, thus far). However, he won one EV in Maine in 2016 and again in 2020. The northern portion of the state is pretty Trumpy, so there's no reason to think he wouldn't do it again, if he stays on the ballot.
All of this said, what we wrote yesterday remains true: The real importance of these cases, whether Trump wins or loses, is that they are going to force the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the matter and to produce some sort of ruling as to what the Fourteenth Amendment really means. Even before yesterday's ruling, we thought it inevitable that SCOTUS would have to get involved. But now that there are actual EVs in play? They definitely can't run and they definitely can't hide. (Z)