Dem
51
GOP
49
The California Senate race is interesting since the candidates are all so different, but a Democrat is favored to win in the end, so the partisan balance of the Senate is not really at issue. Here are the results of a recent Morning Consult poll:
As you can see, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is far and away the leader in the poll. He is also the leader in the money raising race. It seems very likely that he will be among the top two finalists.
Steve Garvey (R), Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) are all fighting it out for second place. It matters a lot who comes in second. If it is Garvey, then the general election will be Schiff vs. Garvey, in which case Schiff can go back to the House to do his work as a representative and not bother campaigning at all. Even if he does nothing in the general election, he will be a shoo-in. If Porter or Lee comes in second, it will be a real horse race in the general election. However, Schiff will still be favored because even in a race between two Democrats, Republicans get to vote. They are likely to pick the lesser of two evils and from their point of view, the moderate Schiff isn't as bad as the progressive Porter or the firebrand leftist Lee.
The demographics of the polling are interesting. Schiff leads heavily among older voters and men. Among seniors, Schiff is at 37% with Garvey at 22%, Lee at 13%, and Porter at 12%. Porter and Lee are much more popular with younger voters.
The three Democrats are not that far apart on most of the issues, although Lee is the most progressive of the three and Schiff is the most moderate (but not all that moderate). The one issue that separates them is Israel. Schiff says Israel should keep fighting until it has destroyed Hamas. Porter wants a ceasefire conditioned on Hamas releasing the hostages. Lee wants an unconditional ceasefire right now. Among likely voters, 59% think the U.S. is doing enough or too little to help Israel while 27% think it is doing too much. This tends to help Schiff. (V)