Dem
51
GOP
49
Republicans have now formalized the process to impeach Joe Biden based on nothing. They will call a bunch of witnesses, some of whom will tell made-up stories and some of whom will say there is nothing to see here. When all the grandstanding is over, what then? It's probably going to backfire.
If they just end the process with no vote, the Trumpian base will be absolutely furious. That could lead to fire-breathing right wingers entering primaries against some House Republicans where the filing deadline hasn't passed yet. It could also lead to some Trumpist voters punishing Congress by not voting in November of next year. At the very least, it will infuriate a lot of Republicans.
If they hold a vote, that will put the Biden 17 and Republicans in swing districts in a real bind. A vote to impeach will anger the Democrats in their districts and put a real target on their backs, even if they are otherwise acceptable. In many closely divided districts, the Democrat will make the vote to impeach the only issue. That is bound to cost the Republicans a number of seats.
If the impeachment vote fails, which seems likely given the Republicans' tiny margin, the base will be furious and demand to know why Biden wasn't impeached. An answer like: "Our margin in the House is only 3 votes" won't fly any more than Biden's lament: "We didn't have the votes in the Senate to carry out my program." Partisans on both sides aren't interested in voting margins or process. They want results and not excuses.
If Biden is impeached, then the bear will be let loose. The Democrats control the Senate and thus can set the rules of the Senate trial. Expect there to be many witnesses for the defense claiming the entire thing is bogus and it is all the work of House Republicans who are Donald Trump's puppets. From Biden's point of view, an actual impeachment on vague charges ("He didn't defend the border") is almost certain to backfire, as it did in 1998 with Bill Clinton's impeachment. And remember, Clinton did actually commit a crime (perjury) and Biden hasn't. An actual impeachment vote and trial is almost certain to cost the Republicans the House in 2024.
Part of the Republicans' problem is that they have worked right-wing media into a frenzy and the Sean Hannitys and Laura Ingrahams of the world are now demanding Biden's head on a pike. It is hard to see what a possible off-ramp could be. Not holding a vote will expose the Republican caucus to withering fire but holding one and failing will as well. Holding a vote and succeeding may save some House Republicans but put others in great danger. It will also make the election about "Are Republicans capable of governing at all?" The die is now cast and there is no turning back. It probably won't end well for the Party of Lincoln. (V)