Dem
51
GOP
49
The White House scored a pretty big diplomatic victory this week, negotiating a prisoner exchange with the administration of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
At the center of the exchange is Colombian businessman Alex Saab, a Maduro ally who was awaiting trial in the United States on charges of having laundered $350 million moving from Venezuela to the U.S. The Trump administration invested enormous resources in capturing Saab in 2020; in addition to the alleged money laundering, it was believed that he had/has intelligence on Maduro that would be useful to the U.S. Although he agreed to cooperate, he apparently has not shared any dirt.
The previous paragraph is a fair summary of what is publicly known about Saab, and the United States' interest in him. The narrative doesn't exactly hang together very well, though, so keep in mind that it's very possible there is more to the story that remains unknown (and maybe classified). For example, Saab may be considerably more dangerous or problematic than "big-time money launderer" would seem to suggest. Alternatively, he may have given up all the information he has to give, and the U.S. could be keeping quiet on that so that Saab doesn't end up "falling" out a window when he returns to Venezuela.
In any event, Joe Biden granted clemency to Saab and returned him to Venezuela. In exchange, the White House secured the release of 10 Americans and 20+ Venezuelans held in captivity in that nation, as well as the extradition of arms dealer Leonard Francis, who used to weigh 350 pounds, and so has the nickname "Fat Leonard." Nearly all media outlets are using that nickname liberally in their coverage; maybe they shouldn't do that.
From where we sit, an arms dealer is a greater danger than a money launderer, so even a one-for-one swap looks like a win. Then, when you add in the 30+ others, it looks like an even bigger win. That said, we are hardly experts on these matters, so we went looking for opinions from those who are better informed. The nation's Republicans, of course, are uniformly critical of the swap because, after all, it is the work of the Biden administration. The victims and their families, of course, are uniformly supportive of the swap. But we managed to find some third parties who have expertise in this area, and they almost all seem to agree with us that this was a win for the White House. For example, Jonathan Franks, who works for a think tank/consulting firm focused on people held unlawfully, said:
I have got to give the administration credit. They have done an amazing job. This is a historic deal.
I think that they—those who say that this was a tough decision to send Mr. Saab home don't know much about what Mr. Saab is accused of or the collateral damage that that prosecution caused.
So, a 10-for-1 deal, 10 Americans for one, plus 20 Venezuelan souls, is a heck of a deal. The president had a moral obligation, and I'm proud of him for doing it.
If that is not a glowing review, we don't know what is.
In any case, this presages better relations with Venezuela, which could pay dividends in terms of future exchanges, or oil sales, or in other ways. Will it benefit Biden politically? We doubt it, since it's pretty inside baseball, and since there will be a hundred things between now and the election that push this out of people's minds. But you never know. (Z)