Dem
51
GOP
49
Joe Biden carried Georgia in 2020 by 11,779 votes, as you have surely heard. People on the ground there now say he could lose it in 2024, though.
In particular, Biden did well among rural Black voters in 2020. Even though their counties went heavily for Trump, in statewide elections, every vote counts, no matter where it is. While everyone talks about the importance of Fulton County, the heavy Black vote for Biden in rural counties definitely reduced Trump's margin in those counties and propelled Biden to victory statewide. These voters are souring on Biden. It is the same problem as with young voters: What have you done for me lately?
Kyla Johnson (19), who lives in the tiny central Georgia town of Fort Valley, told a reporter outside a Dollar General store that she wasn't going to vote in 2024. Her friend, Zayln Young (18), said she would consider voting, but had complaints that she couldn't get food stamps (SNAP) (because students who get some meals from school are ineligible). In the rest of Peach County, home to Fort Valley, one-third of Black residents are living below the poverty line. In contrast, only 16% of whites in the county are below the poverty line. A social worker, Kem Harris, was there to buy some toiletries and toothpaste for students who couldn't afford them.
Poor Black voters like these know they form the backbone of the Democratic Party, but feel that Biden has been taking them for granted for too long and are losing interest in him. A state organizer for Black Voters Matter, Melinee Calhoun, said: "It's: We did what we were asked to do, and nothing has changed." It's not that Biden has done nothing. For example, the infrastructure bill, which Republicans opposed, has $2.2 billion in help for Black farmers, but voters are not aware of it. They are also not aware of the $9 billion in the infrastructure bill for roads, bridges, airports, and public transit in Georgia. The money in the bill will not only improve the infrastructure in Georgia, but will create jobs making the improvements.
In rural Georgia, Democrats are simply not visible, despite the state being a priority. When rural Black voters hear about Biden, he is talking about saving democracy, which they regard as far from their daily lives. Whipping up fears of Donald Trump as an autocrat doesn't make much of an impression on these voters.
In the local Fort Valley barber and beauty shop, many clients hate Trump, but their lives have gotten harder due to inflation. They felt things were better when Trump was president, with those stimulus checks. Now they have stopped and the cost of food is up. Jobs are limited. Many Black people are forced to choose among working menial jobs at local businesses owned by a handful of white Republican families, fast food restaurants, or Walmart. Reading that Biden is sending billions of dollars to Israel to bomb Gaza doesn't go over well.
Voter enthusiasm is critical in Georgia, where Republican officials have worked hard on voter suppression, including efforts to remove voters from the rolls. Unless these voters, the poorest in the country, make a determined effort to overcome the barriers and vote, Biden could lose Georgia, no matter how well he does in booming Atlanta. (V)