Dem
51
GOP
49
There are quite a few reasons that someone, even a Republican, might not want Donald Trump to be the GOP standard bearer in 2024. And certainly, there was much optimism earlier in the cycle that he might just be knocked off by someone, maybe Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). But now, a new poll from Pew reveals that Republican voters are yielding to the reality that it's going to be Trump '24.
A slight majority of Republicans, 52%, identify Trump as their favored candidate. That number has been relatively stable over the last year or so. However, another 19% now say that they will be satisfied with Trump, even if he's not their first choice. That makes 71% who are happy with, or at least OK with, Trump '24. That's the highest number he's gotten this cycle. By contrast, only 64% would be satisfied with DeSantis, 48% with Nikki Haley, 36% with Vivek Ramaswamy and 18% with Chris Christie.
Why is the party coalescing around Trump right now? We have a couple of theories. The first is that his would-be opponents have clearly shown themselves to be pretenders, rather than contenders, who seem only to be running for second place (which probably means that they are running for first place in 2028). The second is that the best chance for Trump to lose the nomination would be primary and caucus voters giving him the thumbs down. Well, ballots are just a few weeks from being cast, and he's still dominating the field. In short, taking these two things together, he's become inevitable, which means it's time for Republican voters to reconcile themselves to that.
As a sidebar to our main point, we recognize that the previous paragraph implies that Trump '24 won't be derailed by one or more criminal convictions. Well, let's make it explicit. We don't think the RNC has the fortitude to remove him, regardless of how correct that choice might be. Further, he's going to appeal any adverse judgment, so Ronna Romney McDaniel & Co. will be able to say "Hey, he's not officially a convicted felon yet."
And now back to the main point. The point of no return for Trump and the GOP in 2024 is pretty clear, and is pretty close to being upon us. But what is the point of no return for Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2024? He's going to win all the caucuses and primaries (except maybe New Hampshire); there's no doubting that. If he leaves the presidential race, it will be because he voluntarily chooses to do so. And the expiration date on that possibility probably doesn't arrive until the Democratic convention, in August.
So, there are basically only weeks until "someone other than Trump" becomes a near-impossibility. But there are many months until "someone other than Biden" becomes a near-impossibility. There is therefore considerably less pressure on Democrats, right now, to reconcile themselves to the reality of Biden '24, and to decide whether they will come home or not.
What we are getting at here is the possibility—entirely speculative, mind you, and virtually impossible to prove empirically—that Trump's current success in the polls is partly, or primarily, due to the Republicans being further along the line when it comes to "acceptance." Republican voters have come home; Democratic voters not quite yet, so Trump looks to be stronger than he probably is. Or, more accurately, Biden looks to be weaker than he actually will end up being.
We had an item last week about how modern approval ratings are wonky, and another yesterday about the potential impact of a Trump conviction or convictions. Tomorrow, we'll have an item about the economy. The overall theme is this: It's still so early in the cycle, and there are so many moving parts, and so many unknowns, that horse-race polling numbers just don't mean very much right now. (Z)