Dem
51
GOP
49
As you know, every House race will matter in 2024. The margins are that small. In OH-09, Republicans have a shot at ousting Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), because OH-09 is an R+3 swing district in northwestern Ohio. However, to do this, they need a solid candidate because Kaptur has been elected to the House 21 times already and is now the longest-serving woman in either chamber in all of American history. She is a pro-life economic populist with a conservative disposition. This is a good fit for her Toledo-based working-class district.
So do the Republicans have a strong candidate who could break Kaptur's streak? Well, no. In 2022, J.R. Majewski (R) ran against Kaptur and lost by 13 points. He is very Trumpy and controversial. For example, he lied about serving in combat in Afghanistan. Stolen valor does not go over well in working-class districts like OH-09. Nevertheless, he is running again.
Given Majewski's poor track record and lies, Ohio Republicans don't think he can win so they want someone else. They found their man in former state legislator Craig Riedel (R). That was humming along until an audio recording surfaced in which Riedel commented on Donald Trump by saying: "I think he is arrogant. I don't like the way he calls people names. I just don't think that's very becoming of a president." He also said he wouldn't vote for Trump.
When the news broke, Riedel endorsed Trump and ran an ad saying that he endorsed Trump. Only he didn't run it in Ohio. He ran it in Palm Beach, FL, in the hopes that Trump would see it. Majewski then tweeted: "I don't have to run ads 1000 miles away from my district in Palm Beach to prove that I am a Trump guy."
So the choice looked like a guy with a stolen valor problem vs. a guy who doesn't like Trump. Republicans are frantically looking for someone else—especially a rich person who has no baggage and can self-fund against a popular 21-term incumbent. And they have to find their someone fast, because the filing deadline is Wednesday.
Ohio politicians who had endorsed Riedel are now trying to backtrack. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), chairman of the NRCC, said: "We're obviously having conversations with people on the ground. I don't know what the next steps are." Unless a white knight with at least $1 million to blow on a long-shot race against a proven winner shows up by Wednesday, the Republicans will be stuck with either Majewski or Riedel. Majewski is probably not viable in the general election due to the stolen valor problem. Riedel might be viable in the general election because his sin—not liking Trump—might not be a problem with Democrats. But in a two-way primary, the Trumpist, Majewski, would probably win the GOP nomination and then go down in the general election again. (V)