Dem
51
GOP
49
A new CBS/YouGov poll shows that Nikki Haley has made huge progress in closing the gap with Donald Trump in New Hampshire. Here are the results:
This is the first time any of the Trump challengers have been above 20% anywhere. Could Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire? Maybe, if all the other challengers would kindly drop out. But that is not going to happen. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is quite oblivious to the fact that he has no chance of winning the GOP nomination or the White House. Hell, he doesn't even seem to know that his campaign is coming apart at the seams (see next item). He's not going to drop out until after New Hampshire, possibly not until after Super Tuesday, when it may all be over.
Chris Christie has too big an ego to drop out. He is smart enough to know he can't win the nomination. In fact, he doesn't even want it. He just wants to stop Trump. But you can't beat somebody with nobody. If Christie could stuff his ego in a box and lock it, he could drop out and endorse Haley. Probably nearly all of his 10% would go to her, putting her at 39%, only 5 points below Trump. At that point, some of the voters who support DeSantis because they dislike Trump might switch to Haley, making it a real horse race.
Vivek Ramaswamy is not going to drop out until Trump has clinched the nomination because he is not running for president. He is running for Secretary of Commerce in the Trump administration. By staying in and defending Trump at every opportunity, he increases his chances of a job in the Trump administration. Asa Hutchinson is already irrelevant.
In Iowa, Trump is at 58% with DeSantis at 22% and Haley at 13%. A landslide win for Trump in Iowa could affect New Hampshire, though. One problem with such a large lead in Iowa is that if Trump is predicted to win 58% in Iowa and he gets only 50%, it will be reported as "Trump didn't do so well." Of course, there is also the possibility that the vote-counting app fails again, as it did in 2020, and no one knows who won until 2 weeks later.
One other interesting note is that the poll also asked a few other questions. In New Hampshire, Haley is much more likable at 55% than DeSantis (37%), Ramaswamy (36%), Trump (36%) or Christie (24%). How could Ramaswamy, one of the most despicable politicians since George Wallace, get to 36%? Haley is also seen as by far the most reasonable in New Hampshire at 51%, vs. 37% for DeSantis and 36% for Trump.
The difference between Iowa and New Hampshire can be summarized in another question. In Iowa, 26% of the voters want abortion to be legal whereas in New Hampshire it is 57%. That's because half the Republicans in Iowa are evangelicals. In New Hampshire it is far smaller. However, in some ways the two states are similar with 85% of Iowans and 80% of New Hampshirites wanting to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. (V)