Dem
51
GOP
49
Fiona Hill is an expert on Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, and has served as a top adviser to both Democratic and Republican presidents. She also testified at Donald Trump's first impeachment. Politico interviewed her about the war in Ukraine. Below is a brief summary of the interview.
Hill strongly believes that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the United States' standing and power in the world will be greatly diminished. Russia, Iran, and North Korea will be emboldened, China will dominate the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East will become even more unstable than it now is. She believes that Putin sees the war as a proxy battle with America and if he wins, he will have greatly reduced America's role in the world. She sees U.S. domestic politics as the main barrier to a Ukrainian/U.S. victory. House Republicans want to hand Joe Biden a defeat and don't care that the long-term result will be a world in which Russia and China dominate a much weaker U.S. They want to win in 2024 and to hell with 2025, 2026, or 2027.
Another effect of a Russian win in Ukraine, especially if it is due to House Republicans getting cold feet and being unwilling to support Ukraine, is that China might be willing to take Taiwan by force, expecting House Republicans to block aid to Taiwan in the event of a shooting war there. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a disaster for the U.S. because so many of the computer chips in many products come from Taiwan, and China could turn off the supply instantly. Then no cars, appliances, and so many other products with chips could be made in the U.S. All the companies that make them would have to shut down, laying off all their workers, which could lead to a worldwide depression. Japan and South Korea fully understand this, so they are helping Ukraine, even though they are far from the war zone.
There are voices calling for a cease-fire with a partition of Ukraine, that is, allowing Russia to incorporate those areas of Ukraine it has conquered by force into Russia proper. The people there would get Russian passports and be governed by Russian laws. They are not likely to take that well. A partition of Ukraine would be a win for Putin and show the world that the U.S. is an unreliable ally. Remember that after the fall of the Soviet Union, the U.S. pressured Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons on its territory in return for a promise to safeguard its territory. If the U.S. reneges on that promise, will anyone trust American promises again?
Some people are saying that it is foolish to spend money in Ukraine when it is badly needed at home. Actually, all the weapons and ammo being sent to Ukraine are manufactured in American factories and create jobs for American workers. The defense sector produces a huge number of jobs all over the country. While the result of the production is killing people, the workers at the defense plants probably don't see it as a waste of money.
Other countries are going to respond to a Russian victory in Ukraine in ways that will not be beneficial to the U.S. America will no longer be leader of the free world. Some countries will voluntarily "Finlandize" themselves to stay in Putin's good graces to avoid an invasion. Losing allies will isolate the U.S. and make it much weaker in world affairs. It's not a pretty picture but could happen for partisan reasons with House Republicans wanting to give Biden a black eye and not caring about what happens next. (V)