Dem
51
GOP
49
The other shoe has fallen in the Empire State. Thanks to change in the makeup of New York's top court, from four conservatives and three liberals to four liberals and three conservatives, the state's Democrats secured a ruling yesterday allowing them to reboot the process of drawing New York's district maps.
In the best-case scenario for the Democratic Party, new maps will allow them to flip six seats in the U.S. House. With no other changes, that alone would be enough to flip the current 221R (plus one R vacancy, in New York), 213D to 219 D, 216 R. So, yesterday's ruling is a pretty big deal.
That said, don't put another six seats in the D column quite yet. First, it is entirely possible that the map-making process doesn't play out quickly enough for new maps to be in place for 2024. Second, New York Democrats might choose to be a little conservative, shooting for, say, four safe seats instead of six very possible seats. Third, we're only here because the state's Democrats screwed up last time; whether they have gained more competence is yet to be seen. Fourth, the state's Republicans are going to sue to overturn yesterday's decision; they've had success with this before. Fifth, and finally, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) has previously expressed some opposition to extreme gerrymandering. Maybe this was for appearances' sake, maybe it was the product of legitimate convictions. In any event, it's possible she might throw a wrench into the works.
So, this little drama is far from over. That said, it's clearly heading in the direction the Democrats want. (Z)