Dem
51
GOP
49
Nikki Haley is on the cusp of doing everyone a big favor. In theory, there is supposed to be a CNN-sponsored Republican candidates' debate on Jan. 10, just before the Iowa caucuses. However, Haley is now suggesting that she is not willing to participate. If she sticks to that, it would effectively kill the debate. Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie are not likely to qualify, so without Haley, it would just be Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). And there is no person on earth who wants to watch him prattle for 90-120 minutes while looking constipated the whole time.
Tactically, this probably makes sense for Haley. If it was her versus DeSantis, he would come in with nothing but unchecked aggression. And while Haley has done pretty well deflecting such aggression when it came from the whackadoodle conspiracy theorist Ramaswamy, she would probably have a tougher time against the more measured, somewhat-evidence-based attacks of DeSantis. Especially if we're talking 1.5 to 2 hours of him being on offense.
That said, let us not lose sight of the fact that while Haley is acting like a frontrunner would, she and DeSantis are actually jockeying for a distant second-place finish in Iowa. Ann Selzer just released her latest poll of the Republican field, and she has Donald Trump at 51%, DeSantis at 19%, Haley at 16%, Ramaswamy at 5%, Christie at 4%, other candidates with 3% and "not sure" with 3%. Compared to the last Selzer poll, Trump gained 8 points, DeSantis gained 3, and everyone else is level.
This raises the real possibility that neither Haley nor DeSantis will be getting good news when the caucuses are actually held. First, because of the way caucuses work, Trump could end up with considerably more than 51% of the vote, and with most or all of Iowa's delegates. Second, when there are seven or eight or nine candidates, then a second-place, or even a third-place, finish means something. Maybe not much, but something. But when there are only three serious or semi-serious candidates left, will voters really see a lot of meaning in which person finishes in second with 13% and which person finishes in third with 11%? We doubt it.
That Haley is just an interesting point of discussion right now, and isn't a meaningful threat to Trump, is indicated by the fact that, as The Bulwark's Tim Miller points out, no politicians are expending political capital on her. If ever there was a time to endorse her as the alternative to Trump, this is it. But... crickets. Meanwhile, numerous Trump-skeptical Republican senators have begun signaling that it's time to accept that, like it or not, Trump is going to be the nominee. That's probably good advice for... everyone. (Z)