Dem
51
GOP
49
Remember: "It's the economy, stupid." But that's not quite right. It is really: "It is how the economy is perceived, stupid." Or maybe even: "It's the narrative about the economy, stupid." It turns out what actually matters in most cases is not the facts, but who is spinning them.
Right now, Republicans are selling the story "The economy sucks and it's Joe Biden's fault." Leaving aside the issue of whether the economy is EVER the president's fault, most of the actual economic data now is pretty good, but the stories Republicans are telling are way off and many Americans are buying into their stories.
Example 1: More people are getting food stamps (SNAP) now. Is this because people are poorer and hungrier? No. It is because more poor people have found jobs. You need a job to qualify for food stamps. Example 2: The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects slower job growth in the next 10 years. Is that a bad sign? No, it is because we are near full employment. Almost everyone who wants a job, has a job. You can't add new jobs if everyone is already working.
The New York Times ran this headline recently:
The economic news is strong, but the Times is whining about it. When the media pitches the economy as sick, people think, "Oh, the economy is sick." Here are some questions pollsters have asked recently, along with the answers respondents have given and also the data-based answers.
The first one is a biggie. Ninety percent of the people asked think that prices have risen faster than wages in the past year. That is actually false. People see that eggs cost more than they used to but they forget they are also making more than they used to. Next, people think inflation is getting worse. Actually, it is way down from last year. And on and on. People's perception of the economy is wrong on just about everything. Is it Republican propaganda? Headlines like in the Times? Or just people cherrypicking a few facts that fit their preconceived notions?
Let us pause here to note that, on an individual level, it is entirely possible that times are difficult, that higher prices have not been counterbalanced by higher wages, that mobility is limited, etc. However, the numbers above would not be possible if there weren't millions of people for whom these things are not true (or are largely not true), and yet who tell pollsters they ARE true.
Are people just suffering from some mass delusion? Or maybe the rapid rise of inflation in 2021/2022 shocked them so much that it will take years before it wears off? If people think that the economy is terrible, when it really isn't, they may vote for Donald Trump. Then, during his administration, when they finally realize it is OK, he will take the credit and then maybe run for a "third term" using the Lurleen Wallace model. To do this, in the fall of 2027 he would get his veep to resign, nominate Ivanka as veep, get Congress to confirm her, and then resign himself. Then she could run in 2028 as the sitting president, with him pulling the strings behind the scenes. This is essentially what George Wallace did in 1966 and it worked—except that Lurleen died of cancer in May 1967 and the lieutenant governor took over and decided that he was actually the governor, not some kind of puppet. Wallace didn't like that, ran against him in 1970, and won.
And incidentally, as long as we are on the subject, let's announce a project suggested by reader T.K. in Warsaw, IN. T.K. suggests that readers send in photos that show the price of a dozen eggs, a gallon of milk, and/or a pound of bacon at their local stores. Here, for example, are the pictures T.K. submitted:
Send your pictures here, and please make sure to include your initials, the name of the grocery store, and the city and state. We shall see what comes of it! (V & Z)