Dem
51
GOP
49
Things are definitely lining up for former representative Tom Suozzi (D) to resume his career in the House by re-taking the NY-03 seat that was his from 2017-23, and then was held by "George Santos" (R-NY) for 11 months prior to his being expelled.
Readers will recall that in New York, party committees pick candidates for special elections. Yesterday the Democratic Party organs in Nassau and Queens counties did as expected and picked Suozzi as their standard-bearer. And earlier this week, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) did her part, and scheduled the special election. It will be held on Feb. 13 of next year.
All that remains is for the Republicans to pick their candidate. The frontrunners are all military or law enforcement veterans: banker Kellen Curry and attorney Greg Hach (both Air Force), businessman Daniel Norber (Israel Defense Forces), and businessman Mike Sapraicone (NYPD). Nobody seems to know which one of these men will triumph. The only thing that is (fairly) clear is that it won't be Philip Sean Grillo. First, he's not military or law enforcement. Second, he's headed to prison, since he was just convicted of 1/6-related crimes yesterday.
The careful reader will notice that all of these wannabe Republican congressmen have no political experience on their résumés. That means we have a veteran politician who used to hold the seat up against an unknown newbie, with the newbie likely being the product of a selection process that is at least semi-divisive. Add in the D+2 lean of NY-03 and a probable backlash vote against "Santos," and you have to like the Democrats' chances. If the expected Democratic win does come to pass, then there will be a period of time—after Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Bill Johnson (R-OH) follow through on their already-announced resignations—when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is looking at a 219-214 majority. That's just two Republican votes and one absence/abstention needed to torpedo legislation, assuming the Democrats stick together. (Z)