Dem
51
GOP
49
The special election in NY-03 is making Republicans very nervous. New York is a heavily Democratic state. Nevertheless, three Republicans are in D+x districts (including the vacant one), one is in an EVEN district, and two more are in R+3 districts. That's six districts that are potentially flippable. If the courts give the state legislature permission to regerrymander the map, those districts could be made easy to win and one more (Staten Island) could be made competitive. If all the stars align, the Democrats could pick up seven seats just in New York. That alone would be enough to take control of the House. Consequently, a lot of attention is being focused on the Empire State.
Republicans got a bit of bad news there last week. Liz Whitmer Gereghty dropped out of the primary in NY-17, clearing the way for former representative Mondaire Jones to win the primary and cruise to election. Gereghty is the sister of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and had access to national Democrats. However, the progressive Jones had more support from local Democrats in Westchester County. Gereghty's decision to quit the race saved the Democrats from an expensive primary and allows them to focus entirely on beating Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in the D+3 district. Lawler is no doubt sweating bullets now. He's in deep trouble.
Both parties are expecting Democrats to run against "George Santos" not only in the special election in NY-03, but in all the contested NY districts in Nov. 2024. By running the same campaign everywhere, they can order "Republicans are corrupt" bumper stickers in large quantities and get a discount from the printer. Of course, Republicans may try to divert attention to New Jersey, where Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is under indictment. However, Menendez has virtually no chance of winning the Democratic primary against two well known opponents, Tammy Murphy, wife of Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ), and Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ). Murphy herself is very active in Democratic politics and knows everyone, even without her gubernatorial husband's connections, and the Murphys are worth north of $50 million. Kim is a popular sitting member of Congress who has run winning campaigns before. One of them will almost certainly be the Democratic candidate, and then, with Menendez disposed of, it will be tough for Republicans to exploit his corruption.
Of course, if the courts allow the New York state legislature to redraw the map, all bets are off.
California is another key state with a number of vulnerable Republicans in districts Joe Biden won. Of the Biden 18, the districts where a Republican represents a district Joe Biden won, six are in New York and five are in California. So control of the House will be fought over in two of the bluest states. (V)