Dem
51
GOP
49
Production of oil in the U.S. has gone up by 800,000 barrels a day since early 2022. It is now at 13 million barrels a day. This is more than Russia, Saudia Arabia, or any other country in the world is producing. It is also the highest it has ever been in all of history.
But the politics of oil are complicated. The glut of supply is driving down gas prices, thus encouraging more driving. This is making environmentalists tear out their hair, especially when world leaders are meeting in Dubai to try to deal with climate change.
But there are also some very big positive effects, albeit in the short term. For one, the U.S. now exports 4 million barrels of oil a day, more than any country except Saudi Arabia. This gives the U.S. leverage against Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and even Saudi Arabia. The U.S. still imports somewhat more oil than it exports, but oil is not entirely fungible. American refineries can more easily handle the heavy crude from Canada and Latin America than the lighter crude from New Mexico, Texas, and North Dakota. So it matters not only how much oil is produced, but what kind.
A side effect of the increased oil production is also increased natural gas production. Most electricity in the U.S. is produced in plants that burn natural gas. More gas means lower electricity prices.
But the biggest effect of more oil production might be felt on Nov. 5, 2024. For many voters, the key issue is not whether Joe Biden is too old or Donald Trump will end democracy for good in the U.S., but how much a gallon of gas costs at the pump. If increased production this year and next leads to lower gas prices next November, that could affect some votes. The average price of gas nationwide in November was $3.32/gallon. A year ago it was $3.69/gallon.
Gas prices are a better indicator than egg prices or milk prices or hamburger prices because for some voters, the entire state of the economy is summarized in a single number: How much does a full tank of gas cost me? If that goes up, the economy sucks and it's the president's fault. If it goes down, the president is doing his job well. It is a peculiarity of the economy that gas stations post gas prices in giant neon signs but supermarkets don't post egg prices visible 100 feet away, so people are much more aware of gas prices than other prices. Look:
Of course, the president has a limited amount of control over gas prices, but many voters don't know that. Even for environmentalists, more driving in 2024 plus a Biden win is certainly better for the planet long term than less driving in 2024 and a win by Donald Trump. As we have pointed out before, sometimes you need to look at the big picture. (V)