Dec.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

DeSantis, Newsom Debate

Last night was the big debate between Govs. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Gavin Newsom (D-CA). We'd like to give you a link so that if you missed it, and would like to watch, you could do so. However, at Fox, the news is a business and not a public service, and this was (technically) a regular episode of Hannity. So, if you want to watch it, you have to pay for Fox's streaming service. Sorry. That said, here's a pretty good 3-minute rundown of the highlights.

We watched it, of course, because that's part of our responsibilities. And we're going to give you our assessment by focusing on the four entities that were (or, in one case, were not) a part of the debate:

1. Newsom: Newsom may have been going into hostile territory, but he almost certainly had the easier task, which was to establish himself as a credible candidate of national stature. And he managed to achieve his goal.
   
   Newsom would love, love, love to be butter-smooth, like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, but he's not that. It's probably not a coincidence that all three of those men were either college professors or actors; two jobs that force you to learn how to read and respond to an audience. Newsom is also not a passionate, fire-breathing true believer, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT); not that the Governor is shooting for that.
   
   No, Newsom is a wonky debater, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). That's not an insult; Warren was a champion debater who was good enough at it to earn a college scholarship. Being like Warren means that Newsom had strong command of facts and statistics, that he was well-prepared for DeSantis' lines of attack and was generally able to parry them, that he generally was capable of thinking on his feet and adapting when needed, and that he got off the occasional bon mot. Certainly the line of the night (which was undoubtedly pre-written) was when Newsom looked at DeSantis and said that "[what] we have in common is that neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024."
   
   
2. DeSantis: DeSantis, meanwhile, had the de facto home field advantage, but he had the harder task, namely to try to change the trajectory of the 2024 GOP primaries. The Governor did not come within a country mile of doing that.
   
   To start, DeSantis showed once again that he has exactly one facial expression, which is "grimace." And he has one tone of voice, which is nasal/whiny. No matter what he says, whether it's pro-Democratic or pro-Republican, it's going to be kind of a turnoff because he is kind of a turnoff.
   
   Beyond that, however, DeSantis' remarks and responses had three themes: California sucks, Democrats suck and Joe Biden sucks. If you can explain how any of those three messages help explain why you should vote for DeSantis instead of Donald Trump, then you are cleverer than we are.
   
   It is also the case that DeSantis seems to live in a fantasy world (but definitely not in Fantasyland, where he's not welcome). Most obviously, his version of California is that it is a dystopian hellscape. This comports with Republican talking points, but not with reality. At various points, DeSantis claimed that California has made it legal for unhomed people to defecate on the sidewalk (he even held up a map of defecation hotspots in San Francisco) and to light their own encampments on fire, that it takes twice as long to shop in California because everything is under lock and key to prevent theft, and that women in the state can never wear jewelry in public because they are certain to be mugged. The Governor shared similar fantastical ideas about Democrats and about Biden.
   
   This is not to say that everything that came out of DeSantis' mouth was a lie or an exaggeration, or that some of his ideas about California don't have SOME basis in reality. For example, (Z), who walks around Los Angeles a lot, has seen human feces on the sidewalk... twice. At his local drug store, the razors, baby formula, cigarettes and liquor are under lock and key... while 95% of the inventory is not. And he knows a couple of women who turned their diamond rings around while in downtown. On the other hand, he's been to Florida, and he's seen most of these things there, too.
   
   Maybe there are people out there who accept everything DeSantis says uncritically. Probably there are. But anyone watching with even a sliver of an open mind surely has to be left with the impression that he's as truth-challenged as Trump is, while being considerably less effective at selling his lies and exaggerations.
   
   
3. Hannity: Hannity made clear that he should never, ever, ever be allowed to moderate a real debate, even if it's candidates for assistant dogcatcher of East Cupcake. The first problem is that despite the fact that it was his show, and his studio, with microphones ostensibly controlled by his staff, he had absolutely no ability to enforce discipline. The candidates constantly talked over each other. Not only was Hannity unable to control it, but he eventually became petulant and whiny, at one point complaining that "I'm not a potted plant here!"
   
   The second problem is that a disproportionate number of Hannity's questions were, to be blunt, stupid. For example, he asked the two governors to "grade" Joe Biden, while not allowing them to explain their choice of grade. Surprise, surprise; DeSantis gave Biden an "F" and Newsom gave an "A." What on earth was the point of that exercise? What could possibly be learned from that? And there were a lot of questions of that sort, that basically boiled down to: "Please give me your talking point on [Subject X]."
   
   And the third problem is that Hannity started the debate by promising to be a neutral arbiter, but then spent the entire debate putting his thumb (and the rest of his hand, and arm) on the scale for DeSantis. To take one example, Hannity's staff had a pre-prepared graphic that revealed that since 2019, California has had 19 mass shootings that killed 4 or more people while Florida has had 9 such shootings. This was part of the discussion of gun-control laws (California) or lack thereof (Florida), and was meant to help DeSantis make his point that gun-control laws don't work.
   
   We are not experts on gun-violence statistics, but we suspect some cherry picking here. At very least, with such a small number of qualifying incidents per year, there has to be some amount of random variation here, which means that 4 years is too small a sample size. Also, the population of California is 39.24 million, while the population of Florida is 21.78 million, which means California has 180.1% of the population that Florida does. Meanwhile, 19 is 211% of 9. So, it would seem the primary difference between California and Florida when it comes to the total number of mass shootings is... California has way more people. And there were at least a dozen things like that, where Hannity and his team had chosen statistics or had made infographics clearly designed to prop up DeSantis.
   
   
4. The Audience: One of Newsom's requirements for attending the debate was "no audience," and he got what he wanted. And wow, even with the two governors yelling over each other on a constant basis, the absence of an audience was still noticeable and a vast, vast improvement. Debates are not a football game, and the viewing audience does not need to be told what to think or feel by a bunch of howling yahoos.

Who knows if this is a one-off, or if it will establish some sort of tradition? We tend to suspect that DeSantis will not be eager to repeat the experiment, once someone tells him that he did himself absolutely no good when it comes to the 2024 presidential race, but that's just a guess. (Z)