Aug.31

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

There Are Three Republican Parties

Neocon and Trump-hater Bill Kristol interviewed Whit Ayres, a long-time Republican pollster, about the state of the Republican primaries. The interview is 53 minutes, but nevertheless worth watching, although Kristol, who is not a good speaker, doesn't let Ayres, who is an excellent speaker, talk enough. Still Ayres makes many good points, summarized as follows.

There are really three Republican Parties at the moment:

• Always Trumpers (30-35% of the party): These people worship the ground that Donald Trump walks on and will gladly walk a mile over broken glass barefoot to vote for him. Nothing will change their minds. Not four convictions. Nothing. Maybe not even his death. Jesus arose from the dead so Trump is expected to do likewise. On a different note, many Always Trumpers have had battles with their Never Trumper siblings, spouses, and especially children. This makes them very defensive, which tends to make them embrace him even more. If he wins, that "shows" everyone that they were "right." Additionally, Trump has upped the ante. Ronald Reagan said: "You have to pay higher taxes because there are people on welfare." Now it is more "Your daughter's sports team is going to lose despite training so hard because Democrats say it is fine if the other girls' team has boys on it." This makes it much more personal and emotional than arguing about tax policy.
  
  
• Maybe Trumpers (50-60%): They like Trump and voted for him twice and are prepared to vote for him again. However, they have doubts about all the baggage (indictments, civil suits, rude conduct, etc.) and are not sure he can beat Biden. They are open to a strong challenger the way Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was in the winter, someone on the move and polling at 30%. If a single strong challenger appears, many of them will vote for him or her in the primaries.
  
  
• Never Trumpers (10-15%): They hate Trump, they feel he has destroyed the Republican Party, and they will vote for Joe Biden in the general election if the choice is Biden vs. Trump, but they desperately want someone else to win the GOP nomination.
  

Ayres said that each of the not-Trump candidates is appealing primarily to one of the three miniparties above. Vivek Ramaswamy is Trumpier than Trump and appealing only to the Always Trumpers. He also has the problem that his hero is Neville Chamberlain and his answer to the red MAGA hat is a white flag. He is quite happy to give Putin as much of Ukraine as he wants. Ramaswamy has no chance because the Always Trumpers are always Trumpers. The same is true of DeSantis. Trying to out-Trump Trump won't work because Always Trumpers will always prefer the real thing over a fake Trump.

Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) are all aiming at the Maybe Trumpers. In greater or smaller measure, they support most of what Trump wants but say that because they don't have his baggage, they are more electable. Scott and Pence each have a shot at winning Iowa, because it has almost as many evangelicals as it has pigs. If one of the two can consolidate the evangelical vote, which is up for grabs, that person could win and go into New Hampshire with momentum. Burgum is wasting his time, but Haley did very well in the debate. If she comes off as the only adult in the room, maybe she could consolidate the Maybe Trumpers behind her. In any event, that is her assignment.

Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson are going after the Never Trumpers. They are not a large chunk of the party, but in an 8-way split, even 15% is a lot. Also, Christie is from the northeast and is well known there. In addition, there aren't a lot of evangelicals in New Hampshire but there are a lot of ornery people there. He could catch on with the Never Trumpers there. If Christie wins the New Hampshire primary, he could become a real force. Otherwise, he is dead in the water. Hutchinson is dead in the water already. (V)