Aug.30

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Trump Likes Vivek

It's no secret that Vivek Ramaswamy has been remaking himself in the image of the ideal Donald Trump running mate. And, at least preliminarily, it is working. Yesterday, Trump was on one of the many right-wing platforms he frequents, and said that Ramaswamy is "smart" and "young" and "full of talent," and that "He's got good energy, and he could be some form of something." We are not exactly sure what Trump means by "some form of something," but we will guess that he's saying that Ramaswamy has the ability to transform himself into plasma at will. If so, that would not only make Ramaswamy eligible to join a Trump ticket, but also to join the Avengers. Always good to have options.

At the moment, if you had to bet, you'd have to put your money on Ramaswamy to be the pick. But it's a long time until the decision will be made, and we are very skeptical that he will ultimately be chosen, for these reasons:

• Faint Praise: Trump loves, loves, loves it when a politician does their barking seal act for his benefit. Hence the encouraging words. However, the former president also didn't come within a country mile of even a vague commitment to picking Ramaswamy. Clearly, Trump is making a point of keeping his options wide open.
  
  
• Demographics: In 2016, Trump used the #2 slot to shore up support with a key demographic (i.e., evangelicals). In 2024, he's surely going to do the same thing. In particular, whether it makes sense or not, Trump is clearly interested in a female running mate, so as to maybe win back some of those suburban woman (NB: Kamala Harris is a female). We cannot see any meaningful way in which Ramaswamy will bring voters to the ticket. Trump already has the far right all locked up, and we cannot imagine what other election-critical demographic Ramaswamy appeals to.
  
  
• Flavor of the Month: This is not a unique tendency, though it's particularly extreme in Trump. In short, he becomes enamored of something, loves it for a while, then likes it for a while, then is neutral for a while, then finally gets sick of it. There have already been at least a couple running mates du jour, like Kari Lake, and there will surely be numerous others. If Ramaswamy is the VP "frontrunner" for 6-12 months, we are absolutely confident that Trump will eventually get sick of him, and will look to nuttier pastures elsewhere.
  
  
• Impetuous: Trump also tends to make decisions, even big ones, last second, and he loves a surprise. He didn't commit to Mike Pence until a day or so before an official announcement was promised, and even then, he self-admittedly changed his mind back and forth a half-dozen times, and almost told Pence "You know what? Forget about it." That means there really can be no such thing as a favorite, because anything could change at any time. It could well come down to something like "Stephen Miller was the last person to talk to Trump before an announcement was made, and so Stephen Miller's favored candidate ended up being the one."

Now that Ramaswamy thinks he's really and truly auditioning to be #2 (a position that, in a Trump administration, entitles you to be treated like a number two), he's going to go even further off the rails than he already has. It will be quite a show, even if the audition is likely doomed to end in failure. (Z)