Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday we had some inside baseball about the Republicans' 2024 strategy. Today we have some about the Democrats' strategy. In particular, a leaked memo says the DCCC is going to focus like a laser on the "Biden 18" referenced above. These are Republicans in districts Joe Biden won in 2020. The 2024 presidential results may not parallel the 2020 results exactly because redistricting happened after 2020, but in a rough approximation, these are the main targets. Some are in Arizona, California, New Jersey, and Virginia, where independent commissions drew the new maps, but others are in Oregon, where the Democrats drew the maps, and New York, where Democrats yet hope to redraw the map. The maps the Democrats drew are bluer for the Biden 18 than they were last time.
That's the "where." What about the "how?" The focus will be on the fact that the Biden 18 voted with the MAGA extremists 94% of the time. That varies slightly from member to member, of course, but the campaigns will say "[Member X] claims to be a moderate, but he voted with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and the loonies 94% of the time. He's as crazy as she is." The campaign will harp on issues like cutting away reproductive freedom, veterans' services, defunding law enforcement, and gutting manufacturing jobs, while ignoring issues like lowering living costs and creating good-paying jobs. The whole plan aims to paint the Biden 18 as being fake moderates who are in reality as bad as the worst of the MAGAs. As expected, votes on abortion-related subjects will be high on the list of topics for ads. For members in New York State, votes to keep Rep. "George Santos" (R-NY) from being expelled will be used, too. Out in Oregon, people may not know who he is, but in New York, many people do. (V)