Dem
51
GOP
49
Wisconsin is the swingiest state in the country. In 2020, Joe Biden won by a small margin and in 2022, Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) was reelected but so was Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is up in 2024. Although she is not a top target, every statewide race in Wisconsin tends to be close, so Republicans would love to flip the seat.
The Republicans just got some bad news on that front. They were hoping that Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) would take on Baldwin. Now he has decided to stick with his R+12 district and be sure of reelection rather than take a chance and probably lose a Senate race to a popular incumbent.
This is the second straight hit for the Republicans in Wisconsin. Their first choice was Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), but he came to the same conclusion as Tiffany earlier, even though his district is only R+10. Reps. Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) and Glenn Grothman (R-WI) are also in safe districts and haven't shown any sign of wanting a promotion. The other two Republican representatives are in swing districts, and if either one tried for the Senate, the House district would be at stake.
One possible Senate candidate is former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke, who is a fanatical Trumper. He might not do well in a swing state, though. Two businessmen have shown some interest but neither has decided anything yet. So for the moment, Baldwin doesn't have an opponent. (V)