Dem
51
GOP
49
It can sometimes be hard to remember which candidates are in the "everyone knows they're running for president" category, and which are in the "they've officially declared for president" category. So, you are to be forgiven if you were not certain in which group to place former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson. In fact, he was in group #1 until Wednesday, when he formally joined group #2.
The official launch was marked by a speech delivered in Bentonville, AR. That is where Hutchinson was born. It is also where Walmart was born. Readers can decided for themselves which of these things was responsible for the choice of site for the launch. In his speech, the former governor attacked Donald Trump (but without using his name), while holding himself out as a model "consistent conservative" of the sort that Republican voters want.
Hutchinson's problem is that "consistent conservative" is not what Republican voters want, anymore. They want someone who is isolationist, xenophobic, populist and willing to wade into the culture wars and "own the libs" on occasion. There is nothing on this list that describes Hutchinson in any meaningful way. He is hoping that the fever breaks, and that the Republican Party goes back to nominating Ronald Reagan clones. But this does not appear to be the direction in which things are headed, at least not in the next 12 months.
Hutchinson's other path, at least in theory, would be for some number of Trumpublican types to split that part of the primary vote, and for Hutchinson to claim the rest, giving him a plurality. In most states, Hutchinson 30%, Trump 25%, DeSantis 20%, Haley 15%, Some White Guy Named Mike 10% would give the Arkansan the majority of the delegates. However, there is not the slightest indication that some sizable chunk of NeverTrump Republicans are coalescing around Hutchinson, nor that the Trump vote is going to go to any candidate but Trump himself.
That said, at least Hutchinson has a theoretical path to the nomination. Someone like Nikki Haley, from where we sit, doesn't even have that. So, the former governor is the most plausible Republican whose name does not rhyme with "Con." But it is nonetheless very unlikely that 2024 will be his year. (Z)